Research: 2010 expected to be "outstanding year" for PV, but 2011 will see a slowdown16. September 2010 | Applications & Installations, Markets & Trends, Research & Development, Top News | By: Becky Stuart
The global photovoltaics (PV) market is forecast to exceed 16 gigawatts (GW) this year, said IMS Research, with demand for PV systems predicted to almost double. It went on to say that the top five markets will account for more than 13 GW, but growth is expected to slowdown next year.
The research has been released following an updated survey of cell, module and inverter suppliers as well as major system integrators, said IMS. In a statement, it explained: “The results revealed that the global PV market will easily pass the 16 GW mark in 2010 driven by strong demand in several European countries, most notably Germany, as well as North America and China.”
According to the company’s results, which are said to be based on an analysis of the likely 2010 results for more than 150 suppliers, as well as a demand-based model of more than 50 key PV markets, global PV demand will grow by more than 100 percent this year. Whilst the Asian PV market is forecast to grow at an increased rate, European countries are still predicted to account for close to 80 percent of all new PV installations this year, it stated.
PV research director, Ash Sharma commented: “PV demand has been extremely robust this year, with high demand in major European markets such as Germany, Italy, France and Czech Republic driven by impending cuts to incentives. This is compounded by the long-awaited emergence of the USA and China, which will see exceptional growth this year and are set to become key global PV markets over the next five years.
“Global demand totaled around eight GW in the first half of 2010 and all of our indicators show that the rest of the year will be as strong, if not stronger resulting in market of more than 16 GW.”
Although this year will “undoubtedly end as an outstanding year” for the PV industry, IMS believes that next year presents a very different picture. The company has predicted a “considerable” slowdown in growth, with the industry needing to deal with “major revisions” to key countries’ incentive schemes and potential over capacity and price pressure throughout the supply chain.
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