The event, which took place on April 19 and 20, in Berlin Aldershof, was organized as part of the 4th Photovoltaics Thin-Film Week, the largest thin film PV conference worldwide. Hope, however, comes from the prospect of new markets, which will arise from dropping module prices and other factors, continued Remmers. That the European market will contract and other markets – in Asia in particular, but also in the U.S. – will gain in importance was a recurring theme in the event.
"The key issue for companies is how to make use of this evolution for their future," said Dr Winfried Hoffmann from the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA).
Price expectations for crystalline solar modules in 2020 are lying at around 60 to 80 dollar cents per watt, while forecasts for thin film photovoltaics lie at around 30 to 70 dollar cents per watt. The bases for these forecasts were in both cases "healthy" prices, where every part of the value chain receives the earnings it is due.
Matthias von Armansperg of Accelios Solar conjectured that Chinese manufacturers are massively driving down the prices in the thin film PV sector too, progressively diminishing the price differential between crystalline and thin film PV modules. In this respect, there is currently a lot of activity in the thin film solar sector.
Von Armansperg doubted whether the Chinese business model will prove to be sustainable: "Just as in Japan and Korea, rising labour costs in China will lead to prices rising again in the long term, thereby aligning with European prices," was the hope of von Armansperg.
Under the title "Market outlook Is finance the bottleneck for thin-film PV?", Götz Fischbeck of Smart Solar Consulting dealt with project finance. In the face of a rapidly changing policy environment it is becoming increasingly difficult, costly and time-consuming to secure finance in the established (European) markets. Many banks will only release funds once PV systems are complete and corresponding feed-in tariffs have been confirmed. In this way they avoid carrying any risk should regulatory changes disrupt the cash flow.
For the growing markets in Eastern Europe, North Africa and Central and South America, a large part of the finance for PV projects must be secured from local banks, which currently have little experience in the financing of solar projects. If there is to be growth in the number of thin film PV manufacturers, issues of financing could, for the reasons given, become a critical barrier, was Fischbecks conclusion.
Bankability is difficult for thin film PV in particular since the sector cannot point to a long history when compared to crystalline PV. This was the theme also taken up by Matthew Feinstein of Lux Research. He advised stakeholders in the thin film PV market, who have neglected its technological development in favour of marketing, to reinvest as quickly as possible in the further development of its products, so as to remain successful in the long term.
He also suggested that the growing markets of South Asia, the Middle East and South America, in which crystalline PV is not yet established, would be the best suited for the introduction of thin film photovoltaics. These markets would quadruple in size in the next few years, according to Feinstein.
Following on, Madhavan Nampoothiri (RESolve Energy Consultants), Stefan Wegener (First Solar) and Dirk Morbitzer (Renewable Analytics) examined the markets of the future: India, the Middle East and the United States.
The second day of the conference saw discussion about further steps to make thin film photovoltaics competitive. In this context, Andrew Wade of First Solar and Holger Meyer of Hellmann Worldwide Logistics explained the EU Electrical and Electronic Equipment Waste Directive (WEEE), which will also apply to solar systems in the future.
The speakers advised the audience to be well prepared, since meeting the provisions of its forthcoming enactment in 2014 will be challenging and complex. Although recycling processes are already available for all technologies, the required technical development is still in its infancy in some areas.
In the final discussion, Dr Tobias Enzenhofer of Global Solar Energy noted that despite all the bad news, there was reason to be proud of the developments of recent years. "A lot has been achieved," said Enzenhofer. Stefan Zorn of Singulus Technologies saw the next step as meeting the pressure on prices through standardization.
A further point of discussion concerned integration of thin film PV into buildings. Great potential is seen here, even if the market is currently still small. "Building integration requires tailored solutions that stand in contrast to standardization and the related cost savings," said Dr Franz Karg of Avancis.
Almost 200 international participants took part in the Thin-Film Industry Forum 2012. The next Solarpraxis event will take place in Berlin on May 30 and 31. Further information about the workshops on the topic of amendments to the EEG legislation can be found under http://www.solarpraxis.de/konferenzen/neuerungen-zur-eeg-novelle/allgemeine-informationen/
