Germany: BCG expects significant downturn in PV expansion

Further reductions in solar incentives, slated to take effect in the New Year, have led BCG to expect a significant downturn in PV expansion in Germany for 2011. “I expect the German market to shrink by about a third next year,” BCG energy expert Holger Rubel told the monthly edition of Handelsblatt. He predicts an addition of another 5,000 megawatts, which is considerably less than this year’s figure, but more than the same statistic for 2009. This year, BCG estimates PV expansion to be between 7,000 to 8,000 megawatts.

Udo Möhrstedt, head of IBC Solar, noted that there was a “kind of year-end rally” in November and December. Many customers wanted to take advantage of the feed-in tariffs that were still in effect for this year.

Solar incentives will again drop 13 percent on January 1, 2011. In spite of these developments, there is still a lot of discussion about the high costs for solar power. Politicians are currently exploring how to even further cut back solar support, such as decreases on a quarterly basis and a cap on expansion. “Quarterly reductions and a cap will result in a complete upheaval,” says Möhrstedt.