Solarbuzz: The unpredictability of Chinese solar demand is a headache


The solar market research company, in its latest edition of NPD Solarbuzz Quarterly, predicts that demand in China up to April 2014 will vary wildly between 0.9 and 3.6 GW per quarter.

Although NPD Solarbuzz is forecasting that will add up to more than 20% of global demand over the next four quarters, it will make managing inventories tough for companies focused on the Chinese market, whereas companies dependent on other regions will benefit from more predictable levels of demand.

The report’s authors say demand in Europe, of which 65% will come from established German, Italian, French and U.K. markets, will amount to between 2.7 and 3.2 GW quarter on quarter.

The rest of the world, with Japan predictably strong in the first half of the 12-month cycle and the U.S. mirroring that seasonality in the following six months – supported by emerging markets in south east Asia and the Middle East – will also supply more predictable demand in the year ahead.