Japan and China hold fate of PV in their hands

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Solar consultant NPD Solarbuzz has warned the global overreliance by the PV industry on China and Japan will accelerate in the second half of 2013.

The latest NPD Solarbuzz Quarterly report is forecasting the two countries will account for more than 45% of the world’s solar demand between now and 2014, supplying a large chunk of a predicted record full year demand figure of 35.1 GW.

Solarbuzz’ figures show Japan and China, together with Germany and the U.S. accounted for more than 60% of the 15 GW of global solar demand from January to June.

With demand in the first half of 2013 rising 9% year on year and 22% on the second half of last year if the predicted 20 GW materializes in the rest of 2013, the figures appear a reason for optimism.

But Solarbuzz points out the market is becoming increasingly dependent on Japan and China with Europe set to supply less than 30% of demand in the remainder of 2013, compared with almost 50% for the period July to December 2012.

Of the 15 GW supplied in the first half of 2013, 45% was large scale utility and commercial ground mount, 20% residential rooftop and the remaining 35% non-residential rooftop and off-grid.