Demand for utility-scale and industrial-size solar projects in Japan will rapidly diminish after the 2014 fiscal year has passed due to fewer market incentives and a physical lack of space, according to the Yano Research Institute.
Yano estimate that the market for large-scale solar systems will reach $23.3 billion by fiscal 2014, before contracting to $2.03 by 2020. The researcher reports that lower incentives for solar power producers are likely to subdue demand. Coupled with Japans perennial land space problem, the market is set to suffer even further.
"Many Japanese solar panel makers see the expansion of the market for solar power generation systems after fiscal 2012 as temporary after the introduction of the incentive program," read a Yano statement.
Until the end of fiscal year 2011, residential (mostly rooftop) solar power accounted for as much as 80% of the Japanese solar market. By the end of fiscal year 2012, however, non-residential solar had claimed nearly half of the market.
But given Yanos predictions, Japanese manufacturers are reluctant to pursue further expansion domestically, instead focusing on marketing their panels in collaboration with foreign producers, Yanos report observes.