The report outlines the company’s belief that the solar PV industry is to exceed 50 GW within a year for the first time. New PV demand, it says, added during Q1 2014 surpassed 9 GW. The reason for this, says the report, is due to strong growth in Japan and the United Kingdom, which accounted for more than a third of global solar PV demand in Q1 2014.
Michael Barker, senior analyst at NPD Solarbuzz, said, This is the fifth straight year that a quarterly record has been set at the start of the year. While demand during the first quarter typically sets the low point for the year, deployment levels during this quarter provide an excellent means of benchmarking demand for the rest of the coming year.
Barker added, Purely on a pro rata basis, Q1 2014 provides strong confidence that 2014 solar PV demand will indeed reach, and possibly even surpass, the NPD Solarbuzz full-year forecast of 49 GW in 2014.
Solarbuzz Quarterlys prediction for the remainder of this year is predicated on a trend that has seen first quarter demand typically represent 20% of the years total. The full demand for 2013 was above 37 GW, said Solarbuzz in a press release, with 7 GW of that coming in Q1. That global demand will reach and possibly surpass 49 GW by Q1 2015 buttresses the forecast made in Solarbuzzs quarterly report released in December.
The Solarbuzz release goes on to suggest that with the trailing 12 month demand, the industrys true size may be almost 40 GW and that by Q1 2015, it will break through the 50 GW barrier. This, Solarbuzz predicts, will bring the industry much closer to rational supply and demand levels.
Finlay Colville, vice-president of NPD Solarbuzz, said, During the past few years, the solar PV industry has been waiting for end-market demand to catch up with the excess manufacturing capacity added between 2010 and 2012. This wait is now coming to an end. As annual demand approaches the 50 GW level, suppliers will finally be able to shift their focus from short-term tactical survival to long-term strategic planning.