Lithium-ion battery technology will remain the dominant player in the storage industry over the next decade, but beyond that a handful of next-generation technologies are poised to pose a serious alternative by 2030, says a new report by Lux Research.
The global market for lithium-sulfur and solid-state batteries is set to grow to be worth $10 billion by 2030, and could rise exponentially higher between 2030 and 2035 towards market dominance.
Incremental improvements in lithium-ion technology between now and 2025 will see this type of battery extend its dominance in the storage market, but next-gen forms will achieve greater acceleration in improvement and adoption, the report adds.
According to Lux, the growth of the electric vehicle market will drive expansion of these two types of storage. The market for lithium-sulfur batteries in transportation will reach $6 billion by 2030, but could explode dramatically after that date, reaching $29 billion in 2035. For solid-state batteries, the growth trajectory promises to be even steeper from $3 billion in 2030 to $42 billion in 2035.
Solid-state technology is also likely to be the big winner in electronics, believes Lux, enjoying a 39% market share by 2035, with a market value in this sector alone of $12 billion. However, due to energy density issues, lithium-sulfur is unlikely to be adopted at any great scale in electronics, meaning lithium-ion will continue advancing in this space.
"Next generation battery developers are pursuing technology improvements and mass-production scale-up, though incumbent li-ion is still improving quickly, thanks to massive investments," said Lux Research senior analyst and lead author of the report, Cosmin Laslau.
"Companies with an important stake in the battery market should invest in next-gen batteries as well as advances in li-ion," the analyst added.