GTM Research: 59 GW of solar installed in 2015, 64 GW coming in 2016


Today GTM Research became the latest organization to provide numbers for the global solar market in 2015, joining estimates released by Mercom Capital and PV Market Alliance. The company’s preliminary estimates put the global solar PV market at 34% growth during the year to 59 GW, an estimate slightly higher than Mercom’s (58 GW) and much higher than PV Market Alliance (at least 51 GW).

In 2016 GTM Research expects this growth to slow significantly to only 64 MW, citing reduced feed-in tariffs in China, Japan and the UK. This estimate is within 1 MW of Mercom Capital’s forecast, showing a high degree of consensus between analysts. This would bring cumulative installed PV to 321 MW.

Below these top-line numbers are significant changes. The company expects the United States market to grow 80% to 13.4 GW, before a slight drop in 2017. GTM Research expects the U.S. Investment Tax Credit (ITC) extension in December to have a huge impact, with the U.S. share of global PV demand growing 10-15% to 2020 due to the policy.

Anticipated market growth in India is even more dramatic. GTM Research expects India’s solar market to double this year from around 2 GW to 4 GW, which GTM Research Senior Analyst of Global Solar Markets notes is a conservative estimate. In the process, India is expected to move from the 5th to the 4th-largest solar market in the world.

This 4 GW is still far less than the 12 GW that PM Narendra Modi predicted would be installed in 2016 at the COP21 conference in Paris. GTM Research Senior Analyst of Global Solar Markets Mohit Anand notes that such announcements need to be considered in context. “Goals, in the context of India, and in the larger context of emerging markets, have to be seen as symbols of ambition and commitment,” Anand told pv magazine.

“All of this is very central government-driven,” explains Anand. “A big part of that ambition has to play out at the state government level, and that’s where the complication arises.”

The German PV market is expected to experience a modest rebound this year after three years of collapse, growing to 2 GW. Another 2 GW is expected in Latin America, however here that represents essentially flat growth.

Anand also says that despite warnings that tightness in the multicrystalline silicon wafer market will persist, he does not expect any supply shortage for solar PV modules this year.

Popular content

This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact:


Related content

Elsewhere on pv magazine...

1 comment

  1. The Dominican Republic is on the road to self-sustainability with the Eco-educativo National Green Revolution Plan.
    You want to be part of this change, Your decision counts …. If you run a foundation, an entity or at the Personal level, these are linked or linked to Environmental protection and Agricultural, Business, Tourism, Social, Sports, Health, and Cultural productions, Come And see the Future, Think Green.
    This is a formal invitation:
    Join the Ecoferia-dominicana Sustainable Global Social Entrepreneurship, We must face the problems that affect the planet with Global Warming, We will awaken the senses, we will shake the minds with the implementation of the National Plan Social Entrepreneurship Global Eco-educative Green Revolution , The People’s Congress, this is a responsibility of all to stop the greenhouse effects, this is an issue that this world-wide significance, rather than a commercial expo, will be an international Congress where all ideas, technology and scientific innovations will be exposed , Entrepreneurship to learn a path to a healthier life.
    This Ecoferia-Dominican initiative will demonstrate that the inter-institutional strategic plan and the creativity of its properly applied socio-community vision can generate new and truly inspiring realities with agro-artisan, cultural, ecological and digital entrepreneurs in this sense, And within the context that we are living in the world, will be a Congress where we will expose the innovations of Technology and World Science, which we will celebrate in the Mirador Norte National Park. You have to be there
    José Tavarez Lora
    Telephone …… 809 645 8796
    Wassthssp +1 829 960 5149

Leave a Reply

Please be mindful of our community standards.

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

By submitting this form you agree to pv magazine using your data for the purposes of publishing your comment.

Your personal data will only be disclosed or otherwise transmitted to third parties for the purposes of spam filtering or if this is necessary for technical maintenance of the website. Any other transfer to third parties will not take place unless this is justified on the basis of applicable data protection regulations or if pv magazine is legally obliged to do so.

You may revoke this consent at any time with effect for the future, in which case your personal data will be deleted immediately. Otherwise, your data will be deleted if pv magazine has processed your request or the purpose of data storage is fulfilled.

Further information on data privacy can be found in our Data Protection Policy.