On Wednesday an alliance of market researchers under the banner of the PV Market Alliance released its forecast for the global solar market in 2016 and 2017, predicting that more than 60 GW will be installed this year and more than 70 GW in 2017.
The group has put out three scenarios, with a low scenario of 51 GW and the high scenario of 74 GW. Statements about the medium scenario are somewhat vague, with a press release stating at least 60 GW, noting a significant level of uncertainty.
This appears to come in below the 66.7 GW that Mercom Capital has forecast and the 66 GW that GTM Research is expecting. However, the alliance has a lower estimate of 2015 installation levels, and like GTM Research it is predicting around 20% growth. In January the group put out a press release estimating installations of only 51 GW, well below that of GTM Research and Mercom.
Across all three groups there is a consensus that the U.S. and Indian markets will grow. PV Market Alliance and Mercom expects significant growth in the Chinese market as well, but for Japans market to contract somewhat after installing 11 GW in 2015.
And like the other two organizations PV Market Alliance expects the global PV market to grow over the mid-term, reaching around 100 GW annually by 2020 in its mid-case scenario.
PV Market Alliance is comprised of several market research organizations with national and global expertise, including Asia Clean Energy (Solar) Advisory Co. in Hong kong, Belgiums Becquerel Institute, Creara in Spain, Japans RTS Corporation, and SPV Market Research and SolarVision Co, both in Silicon Valley, California.