Rystad Energy said Australia will fall 17% short of its 82% renewable energy target by 2030 under its most optimistic scenarios, with gas remaining critical to energy security.
Rystad forecast capacity shortfalls driven by the retirement of coal and gas plants, including Yallourn West and Eraring, by 2028 in New South Wales (NSW), South Australia (SA), and Victoria.
The research found batteries and pumped hydro could address grid instability, with 3 GW expected to be operational by the end of 2025, but warned that supply bottlenecks and long wait times may delay renewable energy and storage projects.
The federal government has sought to fast-track projects through the National Renewable Energy Priority List (NREPL), launched in March 2025, identifying key transmission, renewable generation, and storage developments nationwide.
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