Distributed solar supplied 27% of Pakistan’s electricity in 2025

Distributed solar counts for far more electricity generation in Pakistan than can be recorded in official data, according to new analysis from the Pakistan Solar Association (PSA), with demand patterns pointing to millions of new unseen installations.

Analysis of Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO) data shows a deepening curve of lower demand in Pakistan’s peak sunlight hours, falling from a relatively flat profile of around 2.2 GW in 2024 to just 765 MW in 2026. The electricity demand ramp up into the evening now exceeds 1.1 GW over four hours on LESCO’s network.

PSA’s analysis claims that once behind-the-meter and off-grid generation is counted, distributed solar supplied close to 27% of all electricity generated in Pakistan in the 2025 fiscal year, roughly 51 TWh of which never appears in grid-side data. This lifts Pakistan’s true generation from about 135 TWh to 186 TWh.

Significant volumes of new electricity demand is also invisible to network operators, according to PSA, who warned increased electrification of the two- and three-wheeler vehicles that dominate Pakistan’s electric vehicle transition are also not being accurately counted.

PSA has warned that failure to accurately record new distributed generation and demand has lead to poor system planning, with costs surfacing as forecasting error and “misallocated investment” in generation networks.

In its new research paper, Pakistan’s Solar Revolution: Scale, Blind Spots, and the Path to DER-Aware Planning, the association calls for authorities in Pakistan to model their response on Australian and UK frameworks.

It highlights Australia’s Integrated System plan as an example of how Pakistan can bring distributed resources into a national energy plan, while the United Kingdom’s approach to system flexibility across transmission and distribution could also serve as a model of how to actively manage demand, the association says.

Pakistan’s rapid adoption of solar has caught electricity system operators off guard, the association added, due to the speed at which it unfolded and its consumer-led nature. The report finds Pakistan’s quick solar adoption was driven by increasing electricity prices – driven by high capacity payments to independent power producers – a fall in Chinese module prices and chronic power outages that incentivized consumers to invest in their own generation.

The report draws on LESCO half-hourly demand profiles to characterize the duck curve, and on generation data cross-referenced with distributed solar estimates from Renewables First and trade data from Ember to quantify the behind-the-meter generation missing from official statistics.