CATF releases vision to decarbonise Poland’s power system, with new analysis and recommendations

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  • advance a wide range of clean energy  technology options ;

  • ensure public participation in decision-making;
  • improve long-term planning, factoring in energy infrastructure strategy; and
  • strengthen cross-regional and international collaboration.

“Poland is at a pivotal moment in its energy future, and for it to secure a clean and reliable energy supply it must advance a robust policy support framework that encourages the adoption of a wide array of technologies,” said Tamara Lagurashvili, Regional Manager, Europe at CATF. “As the country moves away from imported fossil fuels and economically burdensome coal, it needs to find ways to accelerate clean energy deployment and support multiple technologies to transition to a fully decarbonised energy system that enables economic prosperity.”

As part of the vision, CATF provides a detailed roadmap through scenario-based modelling, highlighting the potential pathways for Poland's power system transition. It considers 19 scenarios and tests systems across 35 weather years, and looks at aspects such as energy security, land use, and infrastructure requirements.

The results show that the lowest-cost and most resilient pathway requires a near-term doubling of annual wind buildout and the development of at least 8 GW of nuclear energy and 7 GW of carbon capture, though more clean firm capacity may be needed for the decarbonisation strategy to be robust across all potential future scenarios.

“The modelling study underlines the importance of a broad technological portfolio to manage uncertainties, lower cost, and ensure a feasible, reliable, and socially responsible energy transition,” said Malwina Qvist, Senior Analyst at CATF. “The scenarios highlight that the Polish government must find policy solutions to accelerate renewable deployment and support significant deployment of clean firm power technologies, such as nuclear and carbon capture, to ensure affordability for industry and citizens, guard against cost and deployment risks, and increase operational resiliency of the system.”

The recommendations and the scenario-based modelling provide Poland with useful tools to complete the submission of the delayed National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), as well as the Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 (PEP 2040).