As solar and wind power enter the post-subsidy era, the next few years will be critical for China’s energy transition with investors learning to navigate the uncertainties of market reforms. With the 14th five-year plan – touted as a watershed in China’s energy system development – in the works, a report has recommended clear targets for 2021-2025 in terms of solar and wind power deployment and a reduction of coal consumption.
On Friday, three Chinese government ministries issued a joint “2018 Solar PV Power Generation Notice.” Its impact has been hotly debated since, with two key conclusions: the largest market segment – utility-scale PV – will take a pounding and not come close to last year’s record installation figure of just under 34 GW; and the expanding distributed generation market segment, which rose 360% from 2016 to 2017, will also be severely impacted by a 10 GW cap on new projects.
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