The in-country analyst has revised up its expectation for this year and says a healthy unsubsidized project pipeline will keep the numbers ticking over in 2021. The spending plans necessary to ramp up renewables targets in the next five-year plan, though, could put the nation on a collision course with the EU.
In-country analyst the AECEA has speculated the authorities could be ready to wipe the slate clean for the start of the nation’s 14th five-year plan on January 1. The analyst has raised its solar expectations for the year but noted the sky-high price of polysilicon remains a concern for developers.
PV manufacturers unable to live with proposed new quality guidelines and project developers alike are set to be squeezed out by the state in the world’s biggest solar market, according to Frank Haugwitz, who has compiled a market update as preparations for the next five-year plan gather pace.
The analyst expects the final figure for new PV generation capacity in 2019 to top out at 20-24 GW thanks to the delayed introduction of a new solar policy, land scarcity, financing problems and grid connection issues. There are clouds on the horizon too, with China set to remain wedded to coal for the foreseeable future.
Hopes are high up to 5 GW of residential solar capacity will have been added by the time this month’s figures are added, as the household solar feed-in tariff still applies – but only until Thursday. However, the AECEA consultancy has again revised down its overall new capacity expectation for the year.
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