IHS Markit

Having reflected on the year gone by, it is time to turn attention to the coming year. Many predictions may not fully, or even partially, bear the fruit they promise – and the unexpected is always lurking in the background – however they can be a useful indicator of certain pathways and growth areas. With this in mind, the pv magazine team has compiled a list of the top 14 solar PV and energy storage trends expected to characterize 2019. What do you think? Have we missed anything?

More predictions from IHS Markit reveal that 123 GW of solar PV installations are expected in 2019 – up 18% on the capacity additions expected this year. It also sees a market shift away from China, with two thirds of capacity located elsewhere. The overcapacity situation is also expected to ease.

According to IHS Markit, energy storage inverter shipments are on track to reach 3 GW in 2018, growing to 7 GW by 2022. Currently, SMA is the market leader. Overall, the competitive landscape is “highly volatile” with expectations that consolidation will continue.

The concept of revamping and repowering is one of the newest terms in the solar industry. As the installed base of PV systems ages, the concept of upgrading and improving operating plants becomes increasingly relevant to both manufacturers and PV plant asset managers. However, the real market size for new PV components in existing plants will depend on the characteristics of each plant, the overall regulatory framework and the economic benefits that will accrue to asset managers.

On August 21, the majority of EU member states rejected the request for the initiation of expiry reviews with regards to the antidumping and anti-subsidy measures for crystalline solar PV modules and cells originated in or consigned from the People’s Republic of China. As such, the undertaking on the minimum import price (MIP) expired on September 3, after almost five years in place. Here, Edurne Zoco, Research Director at IHS Markit looks at the changes this will likely bring to Europe’s PV market.

According to IHS Markit, on the back of the decision to end the MIP in Europe, solar module prices will decline by up to 30%, while total project system costs will be “immediately” driven down. Overall, it forecasts PV demand to grow 40% in 2019.

A report by Technavio suggests the global market for battery materials could grow 9% annually in the next four years. Analysts point to the increasing installation of storage systems with PV as a key driver. pv magazine has covered previous reports predicting significant growth in PV and storage systems.

As more states adopt ambitious renewable power and storage targets, hopes increase for continued market opportunities beyond the ITC. In the mid-term, the overall market opportunity is clear. At IHS Markit, we project 73 GW of solar PV systems will be installed in the United States from 2018 to 2022.

More than 80% of India’s solar equipment requirements are met through imports from China. Against this backdrop, industry analysts see the predicted 30% lower module pricing, following China’s revised policy, as a good news for Indian PV projects.

The Taiwanese analysts expect that overcapacity will force some solar players to abandon their business or file for bankruptcy. IHS Markit also sees further price declines and consolidation in the third quarter, although it does forecast signs of a speedy recovery.