Taiwan-based TrendForce says the nation added only 410 MW of solar capacity to the end of May, towards this year’s 2.2 GW target. The lower-than-expected deployment volume may be further hampered by new restrictions for PV on agricultural land introduced by the Council of Agriculture this month.
Looking back at the PV market in 2018, micro module technologies started maturing in development and moving on to mass production, writes TrendForce analyst Lions Shih. Modules are no longer limited to a single design as before, but rather continuing on the path toward diversification in 2019. The situation is spreading into other areas, as may be seen in the upstream silicon wafer and cell segments.
To keep up with the global shift to renewable energies, the Taiwanese Government has passed the first large set of amendments to its Renewable Energy Development Act since the legislation’s inception in 2009. The amendment bill passed its third reading on April 12, 2019, and was designed to optimize the renewable energy environment, to keep up with the changes to the Electricity Act and to increase civic engagement.
Despite a number of unfavorable policy announcements, the global PV market still added 101 GW in 2018. It looks likely that this momentum will continue this year, with as much as 110 GW of new capacity expected.
By 2025, Taiwan aims to reach a cumulative installed solar PV capacity of 20 GW. However, by mid-2018, just 11.2% of this goal had been met. TrendForce analyst, Rhea Tsao, examines the situation and discusses what needs to be done to reach the target.
The Taiwanese analysts expect that overcapacity will force some solar players to abandon their business or file for bankruptcy. IHS Markit also sees further price declines and consolidation in the third quarter, although it does forecast signs of a speedy recovery.
According to a new report from the PV Market Alliance (PVMA), the global solar PV market will only be marginally affected by the recent China policy decisions, and will grow to become an up to 200 GW market by 2022. Diversification will continue, with new segments accounting for up to 25% of the entire market by this time.
Global solar PV demand this year will be less than in 2017, on the back of China’s latest policy decision, says TrendForce. Overall, it sees new installs dropping 40% in China to 31.6 GW. The protectionist measures taken by the U.S. will also be weakened by the resulting falling module prices.
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