US solar module prices rise in Q3 amid policy-driven demand

US distributed-generation solar module prices rose in the third quarter as developers accelerated procurement to meet tax credit deadlines, according to supply chain platform Anza.

Projects larger than 1.5 MW faced a Sept. 2 deadline to reach 5% of total spending to qualify for the federal Investment Tax Credit. The resulting rush in orders pulled demand forward from the fourth quarter, driving prices higher, Anza said.

Median module prices on the Anza platform increased 3.7%, or $0.015 per watt, from June to August, returning to May’s high of $0.28/W. The platform tracks list prices from more than 40 suppliers, which Anza said represent over 95% of the US module market.

The report also cited growing effects from the Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC) restrictions, which bar projects tied to Chinese ownership or influence from receiving tax incentives, including the 48E Investment Tax Credit and the 45Y Production Tax Credit. Under the same rules, 45X manufacturing credits are denied to components containing Chinese inputs above defined thresholds.

Prices for FEOC-noncompliant modules rose 9.2% from June to August, while FEOC-compliant modules increased 4.9%. Anza said the pattern “reflects buyer reliance on established suppliers and early FEOC planning.”

“Many buyers rushing to lock the ITC before Sept. 2 appear to have leaned on familiar brands and existing relationships rather than FEOC status, which could have contributed to the sharper FEOC-noncompliant price increase,” the company said.

Mono PERC modules rose about 10% during the period, which Anza attributed to reliance on a more mature supply chain. The price gap between PERC and TOPCon narrowed to nearly zero as suppliers favored PERC amid intellectual property concerns tied to TOPCon. HJT modules remained scarce and carried a premium.

Cell prices varied by origin. US-made cells increased 5.7% to $0.46/W, while those from Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Laos rose 3.7% to $0.305/W. Indian cell prices climbed 5.2% to $0.305/W, and cells from South Korea and Germany fell 8.8% to $0.31/W, Anza said.

“Looking ahead, pricing trends will depend on factors such as supplier origin strategies, trade actions, and compliance preparations. In particular, anticipated AD/CVD determinations on India, Indonesia, and Laos, as well as a potential Section 232 tariff on polysilicon and its derivatives, could create material upward pressure on module costs in Q4, especially if the polysilicon tariff is applied broadly rather than with limited country exemptions,” said Anza.