Hybrid wind-solar-battery plants can power Kazakhstan’s demand growth

Hybrid power plants pairing wind and solar power with a battery can supply up to 90% of Kazakhstan’s typical demand profile for a delivered cost below $60/MWh, according to the latest report from energy think tank Ember.

Ember’s report says Kazakhstan needs “new power capacity quickly”, with its electricity demand rising 16% in the last five years. Coal still dominates Kazakhstan’s electricity mix, supplying 62% of electricity generation in 2025, but its coal units are on average over 50 years old, leading to frequent equipment failures. Ember says there were 891 incidents of various severity between January and July this year.

“To replace its ageing infrastructure and keep pace with fast-growing demand, Kazakhstan needs to build more capacity quickly and ensure its availability during peak periods, including winter demand spikes,” Ember’s report says. “The capacity also needs to be built close to where demand is to relieve pressure on the transmission network.”

Ember’s research analysed 15 sites, chosen for their proximity to a major demand centre and an existing power line, across all three of Kazakhstan’s power zones. It tested 125 combinations of wind, solar and battery capacity at each site, producing 1,875 simulations. Each configuration was simulated hour by hour over a 30-year project life using site a typical hourly demand profile that represented national demand patterns and was scaled to a peak of 100 MW.

Results found the best-performing configurations at each site could supply between 70% and 90% of the electricity in a typical demand profile, hour by hour, over 30 years, at a delivered cost below $60/MWh.

“This cost represents the plant’s lifetime cost per MWh actually delivered, including the cost of curtailed output,” Ember’s report says. Across all 15 sites, the average delivered electricity cost is $56/MWh. Ember says this is significantly cheaper compared to new coal, which costs $70-170/MWh, depending on the region and technology.

Kostantsa Rangelova, Senior Battery Analyst at Ember, told pv magazine that while there is real potential for solar-plus-battery projects in Kazakhstan, the potential is even greater when wind is added.

“Solar is really cheap and very fast to build here,” Rangelova said. “Shifting some of it to the evening with a battery unlocks its full value, making its potential contribution to electricity supply larger than with standalone solar.”

Rangelova added that the challenge for solar lies in the Kazakh winter, which often brings cloudy days that mean solar-plus-storage produces less when demand is highest. 

“Solar-battery projects do not need wind to be viable, but on their own they are a summer-heavy source of power,” she continued. 

“Kazakhstan’s advantage is its vast untapped wind, which is strongest in exactly those winter months. Combining wind and solar behind one grid connection, overbuilding generation capacity and accepting some curtailment by design means only a small battery is needed to reach a high capacity factor at low cost.”

Ember’s hybrid simulations feature curtailment by design in order to minimise the battery need and make it possible to meet over 70% of winter demand at most sites. The report explains that deliberately oversizing the generation means there is enough generation even on less windy and sunny days when paired with a small battery.

This offers a capacity factor comparable to that of a baseload power station, it continues, but at a lower cost than new coal.

Rangelova also told pv magazine the report findings can be very relevant for renewable energy procurement schemes, explaining that while hybrid plants provide flexibility for the power service, their service needs to be rewarded and priced into procurement costs. 

“An auction that asks for a specific supply profile and lets bidders find the lowest-cost mix of wind, solar and battery to meet that profile would price that flexibility in and lower system costs,” she suggested.

Rangelova also recommended batteries have access to balancing, reserve and capacity revenues in order to provide the best value for the investment made in them. 

“Batteries co-located with renewables under a mandate that only shift their own plant’s output remain underused and never deliver their full value to the system,” she said. “It is like owning a Swiss Army knife and only ever using the blade.”

Figures released by Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy in April put the country’s cumulative renewables capacity at 3.7 GW, including 1.37 GW of solar. At the time, the ministry said it planned to commission 245 MW of renewables this year, including five solar projects with a combined capacity of 92.6 MW.

Additional figures from Ember’s report says wind and solar could supply 23% of Kazakhstan’s electricity generation by 2035, up from 6% in 2025, bringing total renewables generation to 35%.