One-third of India’s new renewable energy capacity faces curtailment

Around one-third of India’s recently commissioned renewable energy capacity is facing grid curtailment as transmission infrastructure expansion continues to lag renewable energy capacity additions, according to ICRA.

The ratings agency said around 33% of the 54.8 GW of recently commissioned renewable energy capacity was being evacuated through the temporary general network access (T-GNA) route as of May 2026. Curtailment under T-GNA is highest during solar generation hours, ranging from 50% to 60%.

ICRA said solar curtailment is most pronounced in Rajasthan and Gujarat, while it remains limited southern India, even during peak solar generation hours.

A pipeline of 107 GW of projects spanning solar, wind, hybrid, hydropower, pumped storage and thermal power, all of which have already been granted connectivity, is scheduled to be integrated into the interstate transmission system (ISTS) between fiscal 2026 and 2031.

“As seen in the past, slippages in the timely commissioning of upcoming transmission infrastructure cannot be ruled out, which could impact RE capacity additions or result in continued grid curtailment, materially affecting project returns,” said Ankit Jain, vice president and co-group head at ICRA.

ICRA estimates the transmission sector will require investments of INR 5 trillion to INR 6 trillion ($52.36 billion)between 2026 and 2032 to support the government’s plan to evacuate electricity from more than 900 GW of non-fossil fuel generation capacity by FY 2035-36, including about 548 GW of solar and wind capacity.

“The projected transmission capex of INR 5 trillion to INR 6 trillion includes strengthening existing infrastructure, adding evacuation capacity and developing new transmission corridors to support generation centres,” said Jain. “The sector requires annual additions of around 20,000 circuit kilometers of transmission lines and 120 GVA of substation capacity to meet the government’s targets.”

According to ICRA, transmission projects continue to face significant execution risks, including land acquisition challenges, right-of-way (RoW) issues and regulatory approvals, resulting in implementation delays. Most projects awarded by central nodal agencies through the tariff-based competitive bidding (TBCB) route have missed their scheduled commercial operation date (SCOD) because of these constraints.

Of the projects commissioned under the TBCB route by March 2026, only 12% were completed on schedule. The remainder were commissioned between two months and three years late, with a median delay of more than 10 months. Delays in transmission capacity additions constrain power evacuation for renewable energy projects, leading to grid curtailment.