European electricity market prices fell last week, except in Germany


Solar and wind production

Wind energy production fell last week in several European markets. In Germany the fall was 1.7% and on the Iberian peninsula 11%. In Italy and France, however, generation recovered to register increases of 24% and 10%, respectively. AleaSoft predicts wind production in Spain will increase this week but will fall in the other aforementioned markets.

Last week’s biggest increase in solar energy production – PV and solar thermal – was recorded in Spain, with 9.3%. In Germany there was a decrease of 6.8% and in Italy a rise of 3.5%. Aleasoft expects those positions to be reversed this week.

Brent, fuels and CO2

The Brent oil futures price for October on the ICE market fell below $59/bbl last week – as had happened the previous week – and settled on Friday at $58.64/bbl. The settlement value represented a 9.9% drop on the last day of July. The increase in U.S. crude oil inventories announced last week favored this decline. In negotiation of the product, the risk of global economic deceleration caused by the trade war between the United States and China, as well as production cuts by OPEC+ nations and tensions between the West and Iran, remained important factors.

TTF gas futures on the ICE market for September settled below €11/MWh again last week to continue the downward trend seen for almost a year. On Friday they settled at €10.96/MWh, a value near the two-year historical low of €10.48, registered just three weeks ago.

The API 2 coal futures price on the ICE market for September settled on Friday at $57.15/t, 0.3% lower than the previous Friday.

CO2 emission rights futures on the EEX market for December presented a downward trend during the week, settling on Friday at €25.97/t, its lowest value since the end of June.

European electricity markets

Last week the main European markets registered price declines on the previous week, with the exception of the EPEX SPOT market in Germany, which saw prices rise 3.8%. The markets were responding to lower electricity demand thanks to a week-on-week fall in temperatures and the effect of Thursday’s Day of the Assumption holiday, celebrated in several European nations.

The biggest falls were in markets that normally have the highest prices in Europe: the IPEX in Italy, with a 14% reverse; and the MIBEL market in Spain and Portugal with 10%, positioning both at €40-45/MWh. The British N2EX decreased 1%. The Nordic Nord Pool market and the EPEX SPOT of Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands stayed in the group of markets with lower prices, last week were between €28 and €35/MWh.


Electricity futures

Last week presented a significant drop in electricity futures for the next quarter in almost all European markets. Only the Nordic countries – on the ICE and NASDAQ – bucked the trend, with increases of 1.1% and 1.2%, respectively. Elsewhere the falls were 3-5% for an average 4.1%. The steepest decline, of 5% occurred in the futures of France on the EEX market and of Italy on the GME market. The latter saw the greatest change in absolute terms when it settled on Friday at €58.14/MWh, €3.06 down on the previous Friday.

There was more uniformity on the electricity futures markets for next year as no European market registered price increases. Only the Italian GME market stood at €60.60/MWh – the rest of the markets registered declines on the previous week. Price falls ranged from 1.7% in for Nordic futures on the ICE, to 4.1% for France’s futures on the EEX.