The solar sector is in the midst of a transformative shift as p-type solar cell approaches its efficiency limits, giving way to n-type innovations. Among these, TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact) technology is emerging as the frontrunner, with industry experts projecting it will become the dominant force over the next five years.
At the “2024 TOPCon Solar Cell Technology Development Trends Conference” held in Shanghai on August 16, leading industry bodies expressed optimistic forecasts for TOPCon technology.
According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) in its “2023-2024 China Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap”, TOPCon has solidified its position as the prevailing technology. The report anticipates a dramatic rise in TOPCon’s market share from 23% in 2023 to 60% by 2024, with expectations of sustained high levels over the next five years.
PV InfoLink's trend report highlights a significant expansion in TOPCon's production capacity in 2023, projecting that installed and under-construction capacities will near 900 GW by the end of 2024. It predicts that annual shipments of TOPCon modules will exceed 600 GW within three years, capturing 70% to 80% of the PV market over the next five years and outperforming other technologies. Additionally, Trend Force analyst Chen Tianlang estimates that by the end of 2024, n-type TOPCon cells will reach 941 GW in capacity, representing 66.3% of all solar cell technologies. As outdated technologies are phased out, TOPCon is expected to further cement its leading position in the market.
TOPCon technology, initially developed by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer ISE) in Germany, involves applying an ultra-thin layer of silicon dioxide on the rear of the cell, followed by a layer of doped polysilicon, which together form the Tunnel Oxide Passivating Contacts structure. This design significantly enhances the theoretical efficiency of silicon solar cells, increasing it from 24.5% with previous PERC technology to 28.7%, approaching the theoretical maximum efficiency of 29.43%.
TOPCon has about 15% higher bifaciality over XBC, a potential competitive cell product, which brings power generation gain of 0.4%-1.09%, depends on different albedo. Combined with better performance under low-light situation, TOPCon provides higher power generation in more than 70% scenarios of bifacial market. Even in single-sided scenarios, TOPCon still has higher power generation output under low-light condition. Considering the typical global area has over 90% of low-light hours, TOPCon makes most of its low-light advantage in most areas of the world. Furthermore, TOPCon technology is compatible with existing PERC production lines, reducing the barriers and costs associated with technological upgrades and gaining support from numerous former PERC producers.
Since the second half of 2022, leading industry players including JinkoSolar, Tongwei, JA Solar, and Trinasolar have adopted TOPCon technology for their next-generation cells. This shift has led to substantial advancements and capacity expansions throughout 2023, with TOPCon modules quickly gaining favor among end-users. Within just two years, TOPCon has effectively supplanted PERC as the market leader.
Industry experts predict that TOPCon will continue to lead the solar industry in the near future, thanks to its significant performance improvements and advanced manufacturing processes. Dr. Jin Hao, JinkoSolar’s Chief Technology Officer, expects that further enhancements in material passivation and contact patterns could boost TOPCon’s conversion efficiency by 1% to 2%, solidifying its future dominance.
Dr. Chen Yifeng, vice president of Trinasolar, notes that over the next five years, TOPCon will benefit from several efficiency-enhancing strategies. Particularly, the integration of TOPCon with perovskite technology is expected to achieve efficiencies above 30%, marking a new era in solar PV technology, with TOPCon playing a pivotal role.
Looking ahead, the market outlook for TOPCon remains robust. Trend Force forecasts a steady increase in TOPCon’s global market share, potentially exceeding 84% by 2029. The technology’s economic advantages and adaptability are expected to be crucial in the competitive landscape, as increased investment in production drives down costs and expands market share. And when the industry moves towards tandem cell era, the TOPCon/perovskite tandem cell is poised to lead and dominate the new solar PV world.
In summary, TOPCon technology, with its considerable technological advantages and market potential, is set to lead the evolution of the solar industry over the next five years, securing its dominant position in the global photovoltaic market and promoting the global energy decarbonization.
