From pv magazine India
If China maintains its current pace of clean energy growth and India and Indonesia achieve their stated clean energy targets, power-sector emissions across the three largest coal-growth markets could begin to decline by 2030, according to a new analysis by CREA.
The CREA report said that peaking coal generation in China, India, and Indonesia would mark a major step forward in global efforts to cut carbon emissions. The three nations accounted for 73% of global coal consumption in 2024 and have driven most of the increase over the past decade. A decline in these markets would therefore have worldwide implications, including for coal-exporting economies.
“China has already added enough new clean electricity generation to cover all new demand growth, and power sector coal use and emissions have been falling since 2024 as a result,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder and lead analyst at CREA. “While the coal power decline is unlikely to be linear and may experience occasional setbacks, maintaining China’s current pace of clean energy growth means a coal power peak is imminent.”
The report said India must sustain renewable growth beyond 2030 to secure lasting emissions reductions.
The analysis identifies continued coal expansion as a common risk across all three markets. Without strong post-peak phase-down measures, the report warned, the countries could face a prolonged plateau or even a rebound in coal use.
“Unchecked coal power expansion risks creating powerful vested interests that could delay the energy transition in China, India, and Indonesia,” Myllyvirta added. “Rapid emissions cuts after coal peaks will require sustaining pre-2030 renewable growth rates and implementing power market and grid reforms. The total reduction in power-sector CO2 emissions could equal India’s total 2019 output under a business-as-usual scenario.”
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