Chinese TOPCon module spot prices hold steady as forward curve softens on weaker demand outlook

Chinese TOPCon module prices stayed stable despite wider price gaps, as market participants held differing expectations on price direction ahead of the Shanghai International Photovoltaic Power Generation and Smart Energy Conference & Exhibition, commonly known as SNEC, held in early June.

According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on June 2, the Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark assessment for TOPCon modules from China, held steady at $0.116/W Free-On-Board (FOB) China, with price indications between $0.110-0.130/W.

OPIS FOB China TOPCon module forward curve prices fell for Q4 2026 and 2027 loading cargoes, with further-dated deliveries under pressure as the demand outlook weakened.

Forward prices for Q4 2026 loading cargoes fell 0.85% to $0.117/W, with tradable indications between $0.113-0.121/W. Q3 2026 loading cargoes were assessed stable at $0.116/W, with indications between $0.113-0.120/W.

Prices of Q1 2027 loading cargoes fell 0.85% to $0.117/W, with indications between $0.113-0.121/W. Q2 2027 cargoes fell 0.85% on the week to $0.117/W, with price indications between $0.113-0.122/W.

Forward prices for later delivery periods began to soften in May, as market transactions weakened and expectations for demand and prices in the second half of 2026 turned more cautious.

The forward pricing structure between spot prices and Q1 2027 has largely flattened to only a slight premium, compared to the more obvious contango structure seen earlier in 2026. The price differential between spot loading TOPCon modules and Q1 2027 loading cargoes narrowed to around $0.002/W on an FOB China basis, compared with as high as $0.009/W in January 2026.

A tier-1 manufacturer source said it is hard to gauge how forward prices will move, with the current situation pessimistic and manufacturers’ ability to endure a low-margin environment limited.

To protect margins, some major manufacturers have started considering higher production and stronger marketing efforts for higher-output and higher-efficiency modules in export markets, the source said. However, the producer acknowledged that capacity for higher-output modules, such as those above 640-650 W, remains limited, with only a few major manufacturers currently able to support wider adoption in export markets.

Slow exports of high-efficiency TOPCon modules have also raised the possibility that some demand could shift toward competing technologies such as back-contact (BC) modules, the source added.

Several market sources told OPIS that high-efficiency TOPCon modules continue to command a premium over mainstream TOPCon products because of tighter producer supply. However, a few trade sources noted the premium has been narrowing to around $0.003-0.005/W on an FOB basis, as sharper pricing from BC suppliers has increased pressure on TOPCon manufacturers.

OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.