Europe foresees 20% rise in power demand driven by electrification

Europe is heading toward a structurally higher electricity system as electrification of transport, heating, industry, and hydrogen production reshapes long-term demand, according to draft scenarios for the Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) 2026.

The analysis, developed by ENTSO-E and ENTSOG under guidance from the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), provides a joint planning framework for electricity, gas, and hydrogen infrastructure through 2050. It does not forecast a single outcome but tests multiple system pathways under different economic and policy assumptions.

Across the scenarios, electricity demand is expected to rise by about 20% over the next decade even as total final energy consumption declines due to efficiency gains. Electrification of transport and heating, expansion of data centers, industrial switching, and hydrogen electrolysis are identified as the main drivers.

System planners highlight that the increasing share of variable renewable generation will require significantly more flexibility resources, with batteries positioned as a core technology for short-term balancing, congestion management, and renewable integration.

The scenarios also point to a growing role for electrolysers, which could shift hydrogen production toward periods of high renewable output, effectively acting as a flexible demand source within the power system.

Hydrogen is expected to become a structural pillar of Europe’s decarbonized energy system, particularly in hard-to-electrify sectors such as heavy industry, shipping, aviation, and chemicals, as well as in synthetic fuel production.

At the same time, natural gas demand is projected to decline steadily as it is replaced by biomethane and renewable gases, with the steepest reductions expected in the power sector as renewables and storage expand.

The TYNDP framework concludes that achieving climate neutrality by 2050 will require deeper integration of electricity, hydrogen, and gas networks, alongside accelerated renewable deployment and major scaling of storage and grid infrastructure.