Global polysilicon prices hold steady as U.S. unveils Section 232 import floors

The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon produced outside China, was assessed at $19.227/kg, or $0.040/W, unchanged from the previous week, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on Aug. 4.

The findings of the U.S. Section 232 national security investigation into imports of polysilicon and its derivatives were announced Aug. 6. Starting Dec. 4, the United States will impose minimum import prices of $21/kg for polysilicon, $100/kg for ingots and wafers, $0.22/W for solar cells and $0.38/W for modules. Imported polysilicon derivatives will also be subject to a 15% ad valorem duty.

Ahead of the announcement, global polysilicon market fundamentals remained broadly stable, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see approach as they awaited the investigation’s outcome.

Trading sources generally reported stable prices and limited spot activity prior to the announcement. One trader estimated monthly non-China polysilicon production at around 8,000 metric tons (MT) based on prevailing operating rates, with only two producers running at full capacity.

Against this backdrop, one fully utilized manufacturer said in its second-quarter earnings presentation that it intends to double its annual polysilicon production to 70,000 MT by 2029, with the expansion scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2026. The company also plans to expand its wafer manufacturing capacity from the current 2.7 GW to 11.5 GW by 2029, with U.S.-bound wafer shipments expected to begin in 2027.

The manufacturer disclosed that it recently signed a new long-term agreement with a U.S. customer, fully committing its existing 35,000 MT annual polysilicon capacity under long-term contracts, and added that planned production from the 2028 and 2029 capacity expansions has also largely been secured through long-term agreements.

Market participants speculated the agreement could be related to earlier media reports that the manufacturer was discussing a potential three- to five-year polysilicon supply deal with a U.S. company.

One industry source cautioned, however, that long-term contractual commitments do not necessarily resolve concerns about the underlying demand needed to support the expansion. The source said existing polysilicon production outside China already exceeds downstream requirements and is sufficient to support approximately 4 GW of manufacturing per month.

Meanwhile, the China Mono Premium, the OPIS assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used in n-type ingot production, was unchanged week on week at CNY 31.886 ($4.72)/kg, or CNY 0.067/W.

Market activity in China weakened further this week, with only three suppliers concluding new deals, as weaker-than-expected installations and expectations of rising polysilicon output kept buyers cautious.

According to National Energy Administration data, China installed 72.07 GW of new solar capacity in the first half of 2026, down 66.0% year on year. China’s polysilicon output rose 13.1% month on month to 105,100 MT in July, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, which forecast a further increase of around 6.6% in August.

With fundamentals weak, market attention has increasingly shifted to policy developments. A price compliance meeting convened on July 31 by the State Administration for Market Regulation was widely viewed as an early implementation step for the “General Principles for the Cost Accounting Model of the Photovoltaic Industry.” The meeting marked Beijing’s shift from voluntary industry self-discipline toward coordinated regulatory oversight, although it stopped short of direct price controls.

Most market participants believe the new measures are more likely to stabilize polysilicon prices than trigger a sustained recovery, with effectiveness ultimately depending on how the accounting standard is applied in practice and how fully manufacturers disclose cost information.

Polysilicon futures rallied following the meeting, with the average settlement price of contracts for delivery between August 2026 and July 2027 rising 5.75% on Aug. 3 to CNY 38.030/kg. One trader cautioned, however, that futures typically react to policy sentiment ahead of the physical market.

One market source said the meeting could halt the recent decline in spot prices in the short term, but its longer-term impact will depend on whether implementation can overcome weak fundamentals, including decreasing returns for utility-scale projects and a reduced 2026 installation outlook of 150-180 GW.

Others, however, argued that current spot prices of CNY 31-32/kg are already below the cash costs of most producers, and that introducing a cost accounting framework to support price stabilization at this stage could inadvertently slow the market-driven exit of inefficient capacity.

OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.