Mexico’s CFE plans to deploy 5.4 GW of solar by 2030

Mexico’s national power utility Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) has published its 2026-30 Development Program, outlining MXN 651 billion ($32.9 billion) of investment in generation, transmission and distribution over the period. Generation accounts for MXN 467.3 billion ($23.4 billion), covering 52 projects with 18.6 GW of new capacity.

According to the document, 15.2 GW, or 82%, of the planned generation additions will come from technologies that CFE classifies as renewable. The figure comprises 1.69 GW of cogeneration, which the utility includes in this category on the grounds that it is free of polluting emissions. The remaining 3.39 GW will come primarily from new combined-cycle plants.

Most of the new renewable capacity will be developed under mixed-investment models involving private-sector participation. CFE plans approximately 13.8 GW under these arrangements, primarily comprising solar and wind projects.

The program identifies 30 mixed-investment solar projects totaling 4.90 GW, scheduled to come online between 2028 and 2030. They are in addition to sections III and IV of the Puerto Peñasco solar plant in Sonora, which have a combined capacity of 580 MW and are expected to begin operations in 2028. The solar projects explicitly identified in the program total 5.48 GW.

The program also includes eight mixed-investment wind projects totaling 3.13 GW, 582 MW of geothermal capacity, 150 MW of concentrated solar power (CSP) across two projects, and another 4.15 GW of mixed-investment projects for which the technology has yet to be determined.

Under the broader Electricity Sector Development Plan (PLADESE), which CFE incorporates into the document, solar is the leading source of projected capacity growth in Mexico’s National Electric System (SEN). An additional 12.31 GW of solar capacity is projected through 2030, accounting for 44% of the 28.00 GW of new capacity envisaged for the system. Wind accounts for another 6.58 GW, while combined-cycle plants contribute 5.44 GW.

As of December 2025, Mexico had 8.44 GW of solar capacity connected to the SEN, equivalent to about 9% of the system’s total installed capacity of 91.07 GW. Of that solar capacity, 433 MW was directly owned by CFE. During 2025, the utility added approximately 307 MW of solar capacity, primarily through the commissioning of the Nachi-Cocom plant and the second phase of the Puerto Peñasco project.

Storage lacks specific target

Electricity storage is explicitly mentioned in the Development Program, but the document does not set out a quantified project pipeline.

The program notes that Mexico’s electricity sector law includes storage among the sector’s activities and the functions that CFE may perform. In its assessment of measures required to maintain SEN reliability during contingencies and accommodate greater renewable energy penetration, the utility specifically cites “the addition of battery storage systems” alongside transmission expansion.

However, the tables in the 2026-30 Expansion Plan do not identify individual battery energy storage system (BESS) projects or specify storage capacity in MW or MWh, investment requirements, or project timelines. Projected generation capacity is instead divided among solar, wind, combined-cycle, cogeneration, geothermal, CSP, green hydrogen, internal combustion and other technologies.

The program does link grid expansion to the integration of new renewable generation. CFE plans 175 transmission projects covering 7,545 km of lines, with estimated investment of MXN 131.9 billion. The utility said the projects will facilitate the integration of new generation capacity and alleviate congestion at critical grid nodes.

20 MW green hydrogen project

CFE also lists a 20 MW green hydrogen project under a mixed-investment model, scheduled to begin operations in 2030. The document does not specify its location, investment cost, electrolyzer technology, expected hydrogen output or intended end use.

The project could be the OASIS BCS Phase I development being promoted by CFE for the Mulegé isolated power system in Baja California Sur, although the Development Program does not explicitly identify it as such.

The hydrogen project forms part of a portfolio in which financing will rely heavily on private-sector partnerships. For mixed-investment solar and wind projects, the program estimates investment of approximately MXN 319.6 billion ($15.9 billion), with most of the funding expected to come from CFE’s partners.

Mexican legislation requires the state to maintain a direct or indirect stake of at least 54% in mixed-investment projects. CFE said the structure is intended to prevent debt incurred to develop the projects from appearing on its balance sheet.

Through the implementation of the program, CFE expects to increase its generation capacity, excluding independent power producers, from 46.6 GW to 70 GW by 2030. The company also projects that the share of technologies it classifies as renewable in its generation mix will increase from 21% to 34% over the same period.