EnergyTrend expects price shuffle after EU ends MIP

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A range of political decision are shifting the PV market at the moment – including the postponing of hearings on Indian safeguard duties, the end of MIPs in the EU, the addition of solar products in the second wave of section 301 duties in the U.S., and the discussion on installations of unsubsidized solar farms in China. Against this backdrop, the price for solar cells and modules will take on a key role, said EnergyTrend.

Reportedly, the Chinese market for polysilicon is currently not very volatile. Prices have hardly changed at RMB 83-92 (US$12.15-$13.5) per kg, and domestic production capacity is expected to be around the same in September, as it was in August.

Demand for multicrystalline wafers has dropped, however. In the face of large stockpiles, manufacturers have reduced production volumes, but prices still fell, according to the analysts. Products based on black silicon also experienced a price drop to US$0.360/Pc. However, prices for monocrystalline wafers remained stable at US$0.400-0.425/Pc.

EnergyTrend observed a further reduction of solar cell prices, especially in the segment of high-efficiency mono-crystalline cells. Following the discontinuation of MIPs by the EU Commission, a new price war will entail, it said.

In particular, solar cells originating from China will create direct competition with those originating from Taiwan. The postponing of the hearing on safeguard duties in India creates additional volatility the analysts said. This price pressure is not said to be as pronounced in multicrystalline cells, however.

Currently, the price of mono-si cells is US$0.124-0.140/W, while high-efficiency mono-si prices have decreased to US$0.161-0.165/W, averaging US$0.163/W. Multi-si PV cell prices have kept stable at US$0.118-0.155/W, with an average price of US$0.121/W.

Overall, the Taiwanese analysts believe the module market is stable, while utilization rates are relatively high. Module prices have been largely stable, especially in the Chinese domestic market.

The average price for multicrystalline modules is currently at 26.5 U.S.-Dollar cents per watt. The prices for monocrystalline and high-efficiency modules outside of China, meanwhile, are around 24.9 and 40 U.S.-Dollar cents per watt, and 27.6 and 41.5 U.S.-Dollar cents per watt, respectively.