Sweden could face 150,000 metric tons of end-of-life panels annually

Sweden’s annual volume of decommissioned solar panels could grow from 17 MT in 2021 to as much as 150,000 MT by around 2060, according to a new circular-economy roadmap published by Axfoundation, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, and industry partners including Svea Solar, El-Kretsen, Stena Recycling, and REMONDIS.

The roadmap, developed through the CircSolar project and financed in part by Vinnova, Sweden’s innovation agency, draws on scenario modeling by RISE Research Institutes of Sweden. Depending on the pace of solar deployment and how much of the fleet is repowered – replaced with newer panels before reaching the end of its technical life – RISE estimates annual decommissioning volumes could range from 40,000 MT in a lower-deployment scenario to 150,000 MT in a rapid-expansion scenario by 2060, with larger volumes beginning to emerge from around 2035.

“This roadmap is not the end point, but a starting point for collective action,” said Johanna Olofsson Behrman, project manager for future materials at Axfoundation. “By bringing together actors from across the value chain, CircSolar has shown that circular solutions for solar panels require system innovation, shared responsibility and practical collaboration. The next step is to turn these recommendations into action.”

A typical panel weighs about 20 kg and consists of roughly 67% glass, 16% aluminum, 11% plastic, 4% silicon, and small amounts of metals including silver and copper, according to the roadmap. RISE estimates that dedicated PV recycling infrastructure would need a recurring annual inflow of around 10,000 metric tons to become economically viable – a volume Sweden has not yet approached.

The roadmap warns that panels currently removed from service are often handled together with general electronic waste, which limits opportunities for reuse and specialized recycling. Research led by KTH found that many panels taken out of service are still functional or repairable rather than genuinely at the end of their life.

“After years of exploring what a circular solar power system could look like in practice, we see this roadmap as an important step toward making the transition more tangible,” said Beatriz Pérez Horno, a KTH researcher and one of the roadmap’s authors. “It highlights the opportunities and barriers across the solar value chain and, importantly, helps identify where knowledge, collaboration and action are still needed to turn ambitions into circular and resource-efficient solar systems.”

Under the European Union’s WEEE Directive, member states must collect either 65% of the average weight of electrical equipment placed on their market over the preceding three years, or 85% of the WEEE generated domestically. Separately collected PV panels are subject to specific treatment targets of 85% recovery and 80% preparation for reuse and recycling by weight. Only six of 12 European countries reporting PV-specific treatment data met the 85% recovery target in 2021, according to the European Environment Agency.

The roadmap sets out five priority areas: circular design and responsible production, safer handling and transport of panels, extending the usable life of installed systems, higher-value material recovery, and stronger governance and data-sharing across the value chain. Proposed actions include establishing a dedicated PV waste category under the WEEE Directive, developing standardized testing and certification for second-life panels, and creating a national database tracking installed, decommissioned, and planned solar capacity.

“As the industry’s leading actor, we initiated this roadmap because we see both a responsibility and an opportunity to help shape a more circular future,” said Mattias Ringqvist, CEO of Svea Solar. “Extending the lifetime of solar panels and ensuring they are handled responsibly at end of life must become a natural part of how this industry grows.”

Similar challenges are expected elsewhere in Europe as larger volumes of PV modules reach end of life. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre estimates the EU could accumulate between 21 million MT and 35 million MT of cumulative photovoltaic waste by 2050, with global volumes potentially reaching 60 million MT to 80 million MT over the same period.

Some recyclers are already working to improve recovery economics. A pilot process using electrohydraulic shockwave fragmentation has recovered more than 99.5% of a panel’s original weight in testing, including pathways for silicon and silver recovery, while separate EU-funded projects have developed dedicated recycling lines for silicon-based modules.