Rising gas costs push European electricity prices higher

The weekly average electricity price increased across Europe’s electricity markets last week, according to analysis by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.

The Spanish consultancy registered an upward trajectory across the Belgian, British, Dutch, French, German, Italian, Nordic, Portuguese and Spanish markets.

The weekly average stood in excess of €110 ($125.51)/MWh in all markets bar the Nordic market, where the average reached €57.36/MWh. The Italian market registered the highest average, at €161.23/MWh, followed by the Dutch market, at €131.47/MWh.

Italy reached its highest daily average price since January 2025 last week, registering €172.56/MWh on July 20. On July 15, prices reached €138.11/MWh in the Spanish and Portuguese markets for their highest level since February 2025.

AleaSoft says rising gas and CO2 emission allowance prices pushed up European electricity market prices last week.

Settlement prices for TTF gas futures on the ICE market reached their maximum settlement for the week on July 17, standing at €57.44/MWh. AleaSoft says this price stands 18% above the previous Friday and represents the highest point since March 21. The consultancy explained that threats to liquefied natural gas supplies from the Persian Gulf, amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, drove gas prices higher during the week.

Lower solar and wind energy production also had an upward influence on electricity prices, AleaSoft adds.

Solar energy production fell week-on-week in France, Germany, Italy and Spain but Portugal bucked the trend, with a 2.9% increase. Portugal also broke its record for solar production on a day in July, registering 34 GWh on July 16.

AleaSoft is expecting electricity prices to decline during the fourth week of July in some markets, namely Belgium, France and Germany, as demand falls. However, the consultancy adds that gas costs will continue to shape prices across the continent.