High energy prices reshape Dutch solar market ahead of net-metering phaseout

The Dutch solar market is evolving, with solar panels increasingly purchased as part of wider home electrification efforts instead of as a standalone investment, according to leading market analysts.

Hrvoje Medarac, Head of Dutch New Energy Research, and Gijs de Koning, chief editor of Solar365.nl, told pv magazine that high energy prices are currency driving the Dutch market, with these prices incentivizing people to invest in home batteries, heat pumps and air conditioners, while solar complements their investments.

“From an investment point of view, we think the reason people are buying solar panels is to accompany other electrification measures,” the pair said.

Medarac and de Koning revealed that based on monthly sales data, sales of solar panels are so far lower in 2026 than in 2025. 

“One of the reasons might be that the number of installed solar panels per system is decreasing because people need fewer panels if they are focused on self-consumption,” they explained. “However, people expanding their already installed systems with a few panels might also explain this phenomenon. We know from experience that the registration of new solar panels is confusing in this regard because there is no option to register additional panels, only whole systems.”

Preliminary research findings shared with pv magazine put residential PV sales at just under 200 MW for the first half of the year, compared to 548 MW sold across 2025. Commercial PV system sales are currently estimated at around 843 MW for the first half of the year, compared to 1,515 MW across the whole of last year.

Medarac and de Koning said the uptake of larger-sized systems is being driven by ongoing grid congestion. A parliamentary letter published in February said there are over 14,000 companies and institutions on waiting lists for electricity at regional grid operators in the Netherlands, with requests totaling over 9 GW. Meanwhile, the waiting list of national grid operator TenneT contains 38 GW of connection requests. 

“In many instances, batteries and solar panels are simply needed to continue production because the grid does not provide the energy necessary to do so,” the pair said. They added that across market segments, the Dutch storage market is growing significantly and forecasted around 5 GWh of new storage systems by the end of 2026.

Net-metering phase out

Medarac and de Koning said the main challenge facing the Dutch residential solar market is the end of net metering poised for 2027.

The pair told pv magazine that while this makes investing in solar much less profitable, it offers a boost to the battery market as households with solar will be looking for new ways to use their system to keep energy bills low.

They added that there is currently a lot of uncertainty around feed-in costs and compensation.

“Energy companies have to pay a ‘fair price’ for the energy households feed into the grid. However, they are currently also charging for the same energy, which makes the net payment in most cases less than one cent,” Medarac and de Koning explained. “The feed-in costs were once a way to recuperate the costs energy companies incurred because of the net metering scheme. However, these costs do not seem to disappear when this scheme ends.”

The Dutch watchdog still needs to make a statement on whether this practice is fair after the net metering scheme ends, Medarac and de Koning added.

“If they decide in favor of consumers and set some sort of minimum feed-in compensation, this could lead to a boost in solar sales in the second half of 2026,” they said. “Therefore, the residential market might still remain at this level and be shrouded in uncertainty.”

Negative price challenges

The main challenge facing the Dutch utility-scale solar market is negative energy prices, Medarac and de Koning said. According to analysis published by Dutch energy data platform Datadame, there were 248 negative price hours in the Netherlands over the first half of this year. 

Medarac and de Koning told pv magazine negative prices are barely mitigated by government subsidies such as its SDE++ (Stimulering Duurzame Energieproductie) program for renewable energy projects. “Therefore, new utility-scale systems without storage simply are not profitable,” the pair said.

The latest round of the Netherlands’ SDE++ subsidy program, announced in July, allocated 773 MW of solar across 86 solar projects. 

The 2026 edition of the subsidy round is currently set to take place from October 27 to November 26. The Dutch government has announced plans to phase out the scheme in 2027 and replace it with two-way contracts for difference in line with EU market reforms.

The Netherlands added over 2 GW of solar last year, taking cumulative capacity to little under 30 GW.