The forecast will show that the PV module maker sharply bounced from the slight slowdown in the previous quarter, when N-type Tiger Neo output had been hit by COVID-19 control measures. The forecast also hinges on a sharp gain in profitability in Q3.
According to Dany Qian, VP of JinkoSolar, the company had pushed production of its top-selling n-type Tiger Neo panel dramatically higher in the third quarter and build on that growth in 2023 as new factories in Anhui and Zhejiang ramp production. It would put the PV module maker giant on track to meet its goal of N-type full speed transition and will put it close to the scale of PERC by end of 2023.
Despite lingering supply chain risks, rising polysilicon cost, Tiger Neo order backlogs still substantially increased. It hits 100% growth in deliveries of Tiger Neo in Q3 compared to Q2. And the company’s internal forecast is for sharp and continued growth in Q4 ahead. If JinkoSolar hits or exceeds the analyst forecasts and then makes the internal forecast for the coming quarter, the company would have global sales of Tiger Neo around 10GW deliveries in 2022,accounting for nearly 1/4 of its total output.
Qian said her baseline forecast would put JinkoSolar at over 50% N-type Tiger Neo sales for 2023. She added: “The industry is still struggling with supply chain issues, but N-Type demand seems very optimistic. Global customers are replacing PERC system with N-type in their pipeline projects and are coming into their own next year and that’s where a lot of demand is coming from.”
In addition to boasted 25% mass produced cell efficiency, JinkoSolar has finally refined the product offering to be something that’s extremely compelling and much more cost efficient to deliver and install. “That necessarily has taken a while to scale up because we have to be confident that the Tiger Neo panel is going to last on the order and warranty of 30 years with ignorable degradation,” commented Qian.
The industry analysts expect that N-Type Topcon will see a very significant percentage growth next year even on the order of 300% or some quite high number. So, this is a very big percentage growth rate. It’s much faster than any precious technology during their introduction phase. So over time, that sort of growth rate would hopefully be able to continue and then N-type Topcon will become a bigger and bigger percentage of global solar industry over time.