NEA

From zero to hero in 20 years, China’s PV industry has undergone an extraordinary journey. Vincent Shaw considers the reasons for the nation’s solar success and the challenges ahead.

With polysilicon production capacity having been rapidly rolled out after last year’s shortages, China analyst Frank Haugwitz has suggested global manufacturing capability for the ethylene vinyl acetate used on PV panels could struggle to keep pace with what is expected to be another record year of demand for solar.

Factories suffering from rationed grid electricity could help drive a boom in on-site solar systems, and recent moves to mandate the retrofitting of PV on existing buildings could also lift the market, as analyst Frank Haugwitz explains.

State body the NEA has given its provincial offices until July 15th to suggest counties where a solar mandate – which rises to at least half of all government roofspace – can be rolled out. Selected companies will be awarded whole-county contracts.

Such a decision, which industry body the CPIA is adamant has already been announced, could make all the difference to investors struggling with a surge in equipment costs fueled by the polysilicon shortage. The all-important National Energy Administration, however, has yet to confirm whether the CPIA’s interpretation is correct.

The National Energy Administration has ordered grid companies to supply enough network connection points for all the solar and wind projects registered in 2019 and 2020, and said variable renewables should be supplying 11% of the nation’s electricity by the end of the year.

With the nation almost doubling its new generation capacity figure for the year last month, the National Energy Administration is reportedly considering a joint solar and wind capacity target of 120 GW for this year.

The nation is set to have added 40 GW of solar in 2020 and that figure will rise again this year, to 45-50 GW, according to one of the year’s first industry predictions.

The in-country analyst has revised up its expectation for this year and says a healthy unsubsidized project pipeline will keep the numbers ticking over in 2021. The spending plans necessary to ramp up renewables targets in the next five-year plan, though, could put the nation on a collision course with the EU.

The NEA has revealed more than 1.3 GW of solar capacity was added to Chinese rooftops last month, with more than 500 MW of it in Shandong province. While poly maker Daqo was forced to revise down its latest sales forecast it predicted a quick rebound in the current quarter.