While cuts to subsidies in places like Germany, Italy and France may have some thinking that the, sky is falling in the photovoltaic sector, the latest report from IMS Research predicts healthy growth in 2012 on a global basis. In a fascinating development, the market analysts predict that China is set to become the second largest market, closely followed by Italy.
The IMS Research Q112 PV Demand Database charts conservative, most-likely and optimistic scenarios for 2012 installed capacity. Using data from more than 60 countries, the optimistic scenario would see 32.6 GW of installed capacity added in 2012, growth of 21 percent on 2011.
Driving this growth is geographic diversity of installation, as falling module and system prices seeing photovoltaic installations go in outside of the more established markets. Europes share of installations is set to fall from 69 percent in 2011, to 50 percent this year.
IMS Research predicts that six more countries will install 100 megawatts (MW) or more this year, from 17 in 2011, to 23 in 2012. "It is this geographic diversification that will help drive growth in global PV installations this year as the market becomes less dependent on just one or two markets. Ultimately it will also lead to stability for the industry in the longer term as the impact of a single countrys policy will weaken," said IMS Researchs Ash Sharma in a statement announcing the reports findings.
Despite all of this, Germany will remain the largest market for photovoltaics, with between six and 8.5 GW set to be installed. This demand is largely attributable to the spike in demand in the first quarter of 2011, as many attempted to complete installations before feed in tariff cuts came into effect.
IMS Research was acquired by IHS last month.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: email@example.com.
By submitting this form you agree to pv magazine using your data for the purposes of publishing your comment.
Your personal data will only be disclosed or otherwise transmitted to third parties for the purposes of spam filtering or if this is necessary for technical maintenance of the website. Any other transfer to third parties will not take place unless this is justified on the basis of applicable data protection regulations or if pv magazine is legally obliged to do so.
You may revoke this consent at any time with effect for the future, in which case your personal data will be deleted immediately. Otherwise, your data will be deleted if pv magazine has processed your request or the purpose of data storage is fulfilled.
Further information on data privacy can be found in our Data Protection Policy.