Arguments continue to be presented from both sides regarding the Sino/EU solar trade case. The latest has been a management report, commissioned by the AFASE coalition, which is opposing the tariffs. It indicates that tariffs would shrink the solar sector in the EU and cost jobs.
According to the Prognos report authors, the EU-wide job losses would be the result of fewer installations and therefore reduced demand for EU BOS components, a decrease in EU exports of raw materials and machinery to China, and a reduction in engineering and other service demand from the PV sector. These job losses, the report concludes, would outnumber the jobs added in the EU manufacturing of solar products assisted by the tariffs.
The report is titled "The Impact of Anti-Dumping and / or Countervailing Measures on Imports of Solar Modules, Cells and Wafers from China on EU Employment and Value Added." It was released today at a press conference in Brussels.
In summary, the Prognos report has found that a tariff of 20% would see 115,000 jobs in the EU go in the first year at a cost to the economy of 4.74 billion. Job losses would grow to 175,500 in three years, at a cost of 18.4 billion.
The report considers two further scenarios: (i) At a tariff rate of 35%, 244,100 jobs would be lost, costing 27.8 billion over three years; and (ii) At a rate of 60%, 242,000 jobs would be lost, costing 27.2 billion over three years.
Prognos has also calculated country-specific values for Italy, France, Spain and the U.K. A separate press release highlighted that the U.K. solar industry could shed up to 80% of its workforce in the face of tariff cuts.
"Due to the imposition of tariffs, production of EU solar products increases and some jobs are being created. However, the jobs created by the EU solar producers represent at the very most 20% of the jobs lost along the PV value chain," says Thorsten Preugschas, CEO of the German project developer Soventix, a spokesperson of AFASE, in a statement announcing the report’s release.