Although Li-ion battery industry leaders, including Panasonic-Tesla, can expect to see costs for their Li-ion battery packs fall by up to 35% by 2025, to $172/kWh, Lux Research warns of a widening gap between other market competitors, who can expect to see costs falling to just $229/kWh in its latest report, "Crossing the Line: Li-ion Battery Cost Reduction and Its Effect on Vehicles and Stationary Storage."
Specifically, it states the Nissan-AESC partnership could see costs stuck at $261/kWh, "unless it changes technologies and production strategies." Chinas BYD, meanwhile, is expected to achieve $211/kWh.
"The estimate is based on a new bottom-up cost model built by Lux Research in an industry known for being highly secretive about its costs," commented Lux Research in a statement released. "The model accounts for differences in battery chemistry, form factor, production scale, location and other nuances."
The EV industry is expected to gain most from these cost reductions, with Lux Research predicting the opportunity to sell "millions of EVs" by the mid- to late-2020s. The stationary storage market, however, will continue to see higher prices $655/kWh to $498/kWh in 2025 for residential and grid applications, respectively due to the added costs of these systems, like power conditioning systems, land, construction and integration.
The research company adds that in addition to scale-up efficiencies, geographical location and technology will be key factors to driving down costs further. For instance, Li-rich NMC batteries will help to decrease costs by as much as $17/kWh over conventional NMC/graphite cells, it says.