7th ITRPV: PV tracks 21 percent learning curve, 200 GW cumulative landmark passed in 2015

There a few signs of relief in terms of price pressure on PV cell and module manufacturers expected in 2016. This was one of the findings of the latest ITRPV, produced by the German production equipment industrial association (VDMA), released today.
The ITRPV document finds that PV manufacturing capacity totaled some 60 GW in 2015, with capacity expansions currently underway likely to see that increase in 2016.
“The pressure on cell and more painful[ly] on module manufacturing will persist [in 2016],” the Roadmap concludes. This, it argues, necessitates continuing cost reductions in terms of production consumables and materials.
The ITRPV concludes that these cost reductions can be achieved by increasing Overall Equipment Efficeincy (OEE) of the existing installed capacity; more efficiency use of materials; the introduction of specialized end products for specific niches; and improved module power and cell efficiency on a cost-neutral basis.
Looking to the PV learning curve, the ITRPV finds that average crystalline silicon (c-Si) module prices declined from US$062/Wp in 2014 to $0.58/Wp in 2015, corresponding to a manufacturing capacity of 39.3 GWp and 50 GWp respectively.
Production processes
Turning to specific production processes, the ITRPV concludes that in 2015 slurry-based wafering processes remain dominant, with well over 90% market share in multicrystalline production and around 65% in mono, that a shift towards diamond wire is anticipated.
In monocystalline wafer production, the ITPRPV expects 2016 to be the year in which more than 50% of all wafering will deploy diamond wire. In multi production that is not expected to occur until 2023.
Turning to wafer thickness, the seventh Roadmap concludes that previous iterations of the document had overestimated the uptake of thin c-Si wafers. The roadmap concludes that wafer thickness of 180µm has remained the preferred thickness, with that likely to remain true in 2016. Mono wafer thickness is expected to decline to 160µm in 2018, however multi only to follow suit until after 2020. Diamond wire deployment is seen to a key for the deployment of very thin c-Si wafers.

Silver paste is forecast to remain the dominant force in metallization in the foreseeable future, with copper only accounting to around 7% of cell production in 2016. Lead-free pastes, the ITPRV concludes, will be used widely from 2017 onwards.
Silver line reduction is continuing in line with Roadmap predictions, having decreased from an average of 300mg in 2009 to 110mg in 2015 – a 66% reduction. Looking out to 2026, the ITRPV forecasts silver connections to have declined to 40 mg.
In terms of costs, the Roadmap concludes that with 95mg lines and paste costs of $479/kg, silver metallization costs will total only $0.01/Wp, with 20.5t of silver being used per GWp of PV module production.
Screen printing is forecast to remain the mainstay metallization process, for both front and rear side, with plating not expected to appear in mass production before 2018.

Four and five busbar and busbarless interconnection is all expected to increase through to 2016, when the three technologies are expected to account for well over 90% of production.

passivated emitter and rear contact (PERC) technology is reflected in the seventh ITRPV, with PERC concepts expected to increase market share to 45% by 2025. Heterojunction concepts are expected to increase share for niche applications, alongside IBC concepts, with Si-based tandem cells, presumably with perovskites, not appearing in the market until 2019.