Higher wind production pushes down prices in European electricity markets

Solar photovoltaic, thermoelectric energy production and wind energy production

In the week of September 18, solar energy production decreased in almost all analyzed markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest decrease of 22%. Other markets where solar energy production decreased included France, down 2.0%, and Italy, down 18%. The exception to this trend was the Iberian Peninsula, where production increased by 12% week‑on‑week. In addition, on Sunday, September 24, the Spanish market reached the highest solar thermoelectric energy production since the beginning of September with 22 GWh, and on Wednesday, September 20, the second highest photovoltaic energy production in the same period with 126 GWh. The Portuguese market also generated 13.8 GWh of photovoltaic energy on September 23, the highest value since the end of August.

For the week of September 25, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy production forecasts, an increase is expected in all analyzed markets.

As for wind energy production, in the week of September 18, a week‑on‑week increase was registered in most of the markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The largest increase, 295%, was registered in the Italian market, followed by 210% in the German market. The smallest increase, 28%, was registered in the Spanish market. The exception was the Portuguese market with a fall in wind energy production of 38%.

In the third week of September, daily wind energy production reached levels not seen since spring or summer in several markets. In Spain, for example, 290 GWh was generated on September 21, the highest value since May of this year. In the German market, 653 GWh was generated on September 19, the highest wind energy production in this market since the second week of August. One day later, on September 20, 191 GWh was generated in the French market, a level not reached since August 6.

For the week of September 25, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy production forecasts indicate that it will decrease in all analyzed markets.

Electricity demand

In the week of September 18, electricity demand decreased in all analyzed markets compared to the previous week. The largest decrease of 9.2% was registered in the Dutch market, followed by the Spanish market with a decrease of 5.1%. The smallest decrease was registered in Germany, with a decline of 0.3%. In the other analyzed markets, the decline in demand ranged from 1.8% in Belgium to 4.2% in Portugal.

During the same period, average temperatures decreased in all analyzed markets compared to the previous week. The smallest decrease was registered in Italy with 0.3 ºC. In the rest of the analyzed markets, average temperatures decreased from 1.5 ºC in Portugal to 3.4 ºC in France.

According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, for the week of September 25, electricity demand is expected to continue to decline in most of the European markets analyzed, with the exception of France and the Iberian Peninsula.

European electricity markets

In the week of September 18, prices in all European electricity markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting fell compared to the previous week. The largest drop, 87%, was reached in the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries, while the smallest decline, 1.5%, was registered in the MIBEL market of Portugal. Elsewhere, prices fell between 4.2% of the Spanish market and 31% of the EPEX SPOT market of Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands.

In the third week of September, weekly averages were below €100/MWh in almost all European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Portuguese market and the IPEX market of Italy, which reached €102.26/MWh and €118.27/MWh, respectively. On the other hand, the Nordic market had the lowest average price at €2.62/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed, prices ranged from €68.42/MWh in the French market to €99.43/MWh in the Spanish market.

Negative hourly prices were registered on September 19, 20 and 24 in the German, Belgian, French and Dutch markets. In the Nordic market, in addition to these days, negative hourly prices were reached on September 21, 25 and 26. Likewise, on the 19^th, the Nord Pool market price was below zero, averaging ‑€0.60/MWh. In the case of the British market, negative hourly prices were registered on September 19, 20 and 25. The lowest hourly price of ‑€5.74/MWh was reached in the German market on September 19, from 14:00 to 15:00. This price was the lowest since the first half of August in this market.

On the other hand, in the Spanish market, on Sunday, September 24, from 12:00 to 16:00, the price was €0/MWh. In the Italian market, that day, from 13:00 to 15:00, a price of €10.00/MWh was registered, the lowest since May.

During the week of September 18, despite the increase in the average price of gas and CO₂ emission rights, the general decline in electricity demand and the significant increase in wind energy production in most of the analyzed markets led to the fall in European electricity market prices.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the fourth week of September European electricity market prices might increase, influenced by the decrease in wind energy production, as well as by increases in demand in some markets.

Brent, fuels and CO₂

In the third week of September, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market remained above $93/bbl. The weekly minimum settlement price, $93.27/bbl, was registered on Friday, September 22 and it was 0.7% lower than the previous Friday. On the other hand, the weekly maximum settlement price, $94.43/bbl, was reached on Monday, September 18. This price was 4.2% higher than the previous Monday and the highest since the first half of November 2022.

In the third week of September, production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia led Brent oil futures settlement prices to reach values above $93/bbl. However, concerns about the evolution of the economy and expectations of high-interest rates for a longer period of time exerted their downward influence on prices, contributing to their decline during the week.

As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, September 18, they registered a settlement price of €34.47/MWh, 3.8% lower than the previous Monday. But, starting on Tuesday, September 19, prices began to increase. This growing trend continued on Monday, September 25, when a settlement price of €44.44/MWh was reached. This price was 29% higher than that of Monday, September 18, and the highest since the beginning of April.

In the third week of September, the proximity of the coldest months led to an increase in TTF gas futures prices, despite the high levels of European reserves. The alterations in the gas flow from Norway, which will be extended to the month of October, also exerted an upward influence on prices. Meanwhile, the labor conflict at Australian liquefied natural gas export plants continues.

The weekly minimum settlement price for CO₂ emission rights futures in the EEX market, for the reference contract of December 2023, on Monday, September 18, was registered at €80.84/t. This price was 1.0% lower than the previous Monday and the lowest since early June. However, during the rest of the sessions of the third week of September, prices increased. As a consequence, the weekly maximum settlement price of €85.48/t was reached on Friday, September 22 and it was 3.9% higher than the previous Friday.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the financing and valuation of renewable energy projects

The next webinar in the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen will be held on Thursday, October 19. Speakers from Deloitte will participate in the webinar for the fourth time. In addition to the prospects for European energy markets for the winter of 2023‑2024, the financing of renewable energy projects and the importance of forecasting in audits and portfolio valuation will be analyzed.