China polysilicon prices fall for first time in more than three months

China Mono Grade, the OPIS benchmark assessment for polysilicon prices in the country, fell 4.22% to CNY79.5 ($11.07)/kg week-on-week for the first time in more than three months on the back of weakening demand across the solar supply chain, which has finally impacted the upstream polysilicon sector.

Domestic polysilicon prices were assessed in the range of CNY75-83/kg. While major polysilicon makers hold their price quotes at the higher end of the range, tier-2 producers have cut prices to their lower end, pulling overall market prices down.

Weakening polysilicon demand – driven by lower solar installation rates in the fourth quarter of 2023 – contributes to the move downward, with trade volumes light in the week to Tuesday. Wafer makers have cut their operating rates as module inventories build and solar installations face delays in the fourth quarter. Expecting polysilicon prices to fall further, wafer makers adopting a wait-and-see approach when purchasing the material.

High inventories in both the polysilicon and wafer segments also weigh on prices. According to a solar market veteran, China’s wafer inventories are estimated at 20 GW and polysilicon inventories at around 50,000 MT.

China polysilicon prices are expected to bottom out in the fourth quarter as more polysilicon capacity comes online and building inventories contribute to a supply glut.

OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.