Free-On-Board (FOB) TOPCon cells held steady this week amid thin trading activity during the Lunar New Year holiday lull. According to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on February 24, FOB China TOPCon M10 cell prices were assessed stable on the week at $0.0559/W.
Most manufacturers withdrew spot offers for prompt loading one to two weeks ahead of the holidays, with new bookings deferred to the following month, market sources said. Producer sources added that prices will be reassessed after the holidays as production costs continue to shift, particularly due to upstream price movements and silver costs.
FOB China wafer and polysilicon prices have softened since the start of the year despite gains in downstream markets. FOB China n-type M10 wafer prices stood at $0.164/piece this week, down 8.9% year-to-date, while China Mono Premium—OPIS' assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used in n-type ingot production—was priced at CNY 50.917 ($7.44)/kg, down 4.5% over the same period.
Manufacturers were also heard adjusting operating strategies since early this year, with utilization rates reflecting a more “build-to-order” approach amid high production costs and weak end-user demand. However, post-holiday production schedules remain uncertain, with limited visibility on Q2 demand.
Market participants noted that cell price direction will largely track module demand. Some expect module export demand to be front-loaded into Q1 2026 ahead of policy changes, which could temporarily support cell prices. However, sources said sustained weakness in module demand in the second half of 2026 could exert downward pressure on cell offers.
Meanwhile in India, domestic module suppliers have begun securing cell supply from manufacturers approved under the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) List-II ahead of its June 1 implementation. From this date, modules supplied into ALMM-covered projects must be manufactured using cells from List-II-approved manufacturers.
However, market participants note current domestic cell supply remains tight. While OPIS estimates total ALMM List-II cell capacity at approximately 26.5 GW, MNRE data shows India installed nearly 35 GW of solar capacity between April 2025–January 2026, leaving listed cell availability below the recent installation run-rate. List-II cell capacity also sits well below List-I module capacity of approximately 162 GW. Market participants noted the mismatch could tighten supply of fully compliant modules and lift domestic module offers as the deadline approaches.
Separately, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association’s (CPIA) newly released 2025–2026 roadmap highlighted technology adoption and efficiency targets through 2025 and beyond. TOPCon cells remained the dominant technology in 2025 with an 87.6% market share, while PERC fell to 3%. HJT accounted for 2.6% while XBC rose to 6.7%, driven by technical progress and industry promotion.
According to the report, average n-type TOPCon cell efficiency is projected to reach 26% in 2026 and 26.6% by 2030. HJT and XBC efficiencies are expected to reach 26.2% and 26.8% in 2026, rising to 26.7% and 27.5% by 2030, respectively.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: editors@pv-magazine.com.
By submitting this form you agree to pv magazine using your data for the purposes of publishing your comment.
Your personal data will only be disclosed or otherwise transmitted to third parties for the purposes of spam filtering or if this is necessary for technical maintenance of the website. Any other transfer to third parties will not take place unless this is justified on the basis of applicable data protection regulations or if pv magazine is legally obliged to do so.
You may revoke this consent at any time with effect for the future, in which case your personal data will be deleted immediately. Otherwise, your data will be deleted if pv magazine has processed your request or the purpose of data storage is fulfilled.
Further information on data privacy can be found in our Data Protection Policy.