According to the Bernreuter Research, the polysilicon production this year will be sufficient to manufacture solar modules made of crystalline silicon cells with a total power of 17 gigawatts. Next year, the silicon supply for the photovoltaic industry will even be equivalent to 27.5GW of crystalline modules, according to the latest forecast of the market research firm Bernreuter Research.
According to the press release from the researcher, the PV market size can be determined by the total power of crystalline modules that are manufactured annually. Johannes Bernreuter who heads the Bernreuter Research states that he does not expect a massive oversupply of polysilicon next year. He says this even though most analysts predict between 13 and 20GW of new PV installations next year.
Bernreuter Research went through more than 40 analyst-forecasts that were made on newly installed PV capacities between 2008 up to now. Bernreuter evaluates, "The forecasts deviate from the actual value by up to 50 percent downwards. Obviously, demand is more elastic than many assume."
Bernreuter will give a presentation on the new results of the study at the 11th Solarpraxis Forum in Berlin on November, 12.