Rystad predicts jump in US solar, wind deployment


From pv magazine USA

Rystad Energy says the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could increase total deployments of wind and solar power by an additional 155 GW by 2030.

With the signing of the IRA, long-term projections for solar are rising. About 85 GW of the expected 155 GW of new renewables capacity will come from wind, with 70 GW to come from utility-scale solar.

The solar industry is currently digging itself out of an anti-dumping import tariff investigation that President Joe Biden put on hold for two years while the government worked on the details. However, shortly after that industry crisis was put on hold, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act required 3 GW of solar modules to be held at port.

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Some of the benefits that come from the IRA are based on domestic content requirements. It will take time for the United States to ramp up production of solar panels and its supply chain, and at this point it’s mostly speculative as to whether or not the nation will actually hit 40 GW to 50 GW of capacity. However, Q Cells and Meyer Burger recently announced that they will build substantial new manufacturing facilities.

Rystad said that it will take until 2024 for the US solar industry to really begin to ramp up and take advantage of the IRA. It said that offshore wind could greatly benefit from the new law, but it warned that there is limited supply of wind turbine installation vessels that would meet US standards.

The company noted that the IRA gives utility-scale developers a chance to choose between the 30% tax credit (ITC) or a per kilowatt-hour production tax credit (PTC). The group said a 250 MW solar project would benefit more from the PTC versus the ITC right up until high interest rates start to bite, due to the heavy up-front costs.

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