The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon produced outside China, was assessed at $18.319/kg, or $0.038/W this week, remaining unchanged on a week-on-week basis, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on December 2.
Trading activity in the global polysilicon market remained limited, with no notable shifts in fundamentals. Industry insiders describe current transactions as ‘intermittent.' Downstream manufacturers are reportedly discouraged by the high premiums on global polysilicon, while simultaneously prioritizing securing downstream orders for US exports and sourcing the “safe” raw materials to fulfill those orders.
Market participants note that escalating global trade barriers – particularly import restrictions implemented for regional protection – are likely to drive further fragmentation and regionalization of the global polysilicon sector, both in pricing and supply structure.
A recent development supports this view. Morocco has announced plans to build its first green polysilicon production facility, with an annual capacity of 30,000 MT, under an investment agreement with GPM Holding SA, a Morocco-based sustainable energy company.
According to a market insider, polysilicon produced in new regions could offer alternative sourcing options for wafer and module manufacturers amid tightening trade barriers, such as for European producers seeking supply diversification and reduced reliance on a single region.
However, sources remain cautious about project feasibility. They point out that, unlike comparatively less complex downstream segments of the solar supply chain, polysilicon facilities require substantial capital investment, deep technical expertise, long-term operational support and sustained government backing.
Even with strong engineering and technical partners, constructing a polysilicon plant ultimately depends on securing sufficient funding, while long-term viability hinges on effective cost control, a veteran polysilicon insider told OPIS. The source added that, in the short term, prospects for newly announced initiatives remain unclear. At present, the only projects with visible near-term production potential are a polysilicon facility in the Middle East and a project by a major Indian photovoltaic manufacturer.
Meanwhile, market fundamentals in China’s polysilicon sector remain largely unchanged. The China Mono Premium – OPIS' assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used in n-type ingot production – remained unchanged week-on-week at CNY 52.200 ($7.38)/kg or CNY 0.110/W.
According to industry sources, although two major producers of Siemens polysilicon and Fluidized Bed Reactor (FBR) granular polysilicon have reduced output, these adjustments reflect optimization of operating rates in response to cost changes arising from fluctuating electricity prices across different production bases. Sources emphasized that these measures are not sufficient to result in a “significant reduction in supply.”
Weaker end-market demand has led wafer manufacturers to reduce polysilicon procurement, with considerable transactions recently concentrated in FBR granular polysilicon, according to one market participant.
The source noted that mainstream transaction prices for FBR granular polysilicon are currently approximately CNY 4/kg lower than mainstream prices for Siemens polysilicon. Given that operating rates among FBR granular polysilicon producers consistently exceed those of Siemens polysilicon manufacturers, the market share of granular polysilicon could rise to around 25% by 2025, the source added.
As 2025 approaches its conclusion, market feedback indicates polysilicon inventory levels are likely to end the year at approximately 600,000 metric tons, significantly higher than the roughly 400,000 MT recorded at year-end 2024.
However, the polysilicon futures market, launched at the end of 2024, likely retains an average of 100,000 MT of inventory per month on the futures platform, helping to alleviate pressure on spot-market inventory circulation.
Meanwhile, the widely discussed polysilicon industry consolidation plan is progressing slowly, according to industry sources. In addition to core issues such as equity structure and financing arrangements, one insider noted that a key topic under discussion is the development of a regulatory framework to restrict future entrants or significantly raise the industry’s entry threshold in the future.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
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