Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts AUD 5.1 billion of investment in utility-scale solar and wind projects in Australia in 2026, with wind accounting for 95% of the total.
It said investment in utility-scale renewables will stay in line with 2025 levels, rather than achieving new investment records.
Citing government policy as the biggest driver, the paper says to date the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and New South Wales (NSW) Long-term Energy Service Agreements (LTESAs) have awarded support to 15.8 GW of solar and wind projects, but only 3.5 GW of capacity has secured financing to date.
Lengthy state and federal approvals, slow grid expansion, and social licensing issues are listed as primary causes for delay.
BNEF says utility-scale renewables and storage capacity installations will fail to reach last year’s high when more than 6.5 GW of capacity was commissioned and installations surged 94% year-on-year, driven partly by the increase in storage capacity.
“A record 3 GW/7.7 GWh of batteries were commissioned in 2025 compared to 0.6 GW/1.6 GWh in 2024, more than doubling the size of the overall operating fleet to 5.2 GW/11.6 GWh,” said BNEF.
Utility-solar is cannibalizing its own value, BNEF said, as solar reaches increasingly higher levels of market saturation.
“Wholesale power prices were negative 18% of the time in 2025 in the National Electricity Market (NEM), particularly around midday when solar generation is at its peak. When power prices are negative, solar generators curtail their generation. Together, market saturation and negative pricing are undermining the merchant value of solar,” the paper said. “Solar installations are set to fall 21% amid development hurdles and intensifying competition from rooftop solar. New South Wales is expected to lead solar additions with 798 MW, followed by Victoria at 317 MW.”
Other key areas BNEF lists to watch in 2026 include a plateauing of rooftop solar while small-scale batteries continue to boom, wholesale power price volatility will decline and electric vehicle sales will exceed 200,000 units.
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