From pv magazine Brazil
Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy has opened public consultations on the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) 2035 and the National Energy Plan (PNE) 2055, Brazil’s main long-term energy planning instruments developed by Energy Research Company (EPE).
Under the baseline scenario outlined in PDE 2035, Brazil’s installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity is projected to reach 107 GW by 2035, up from 60 GW in December 2025. Of that total, utility-scale solar would rise from 20 GW to 29 GW, while distributed generation would expand from 40 GW to 78 GW over the decade.
At 107 GW, solar would become Brazil’s second-largest electricity source, accounting for nearly 30% of installed capacity and approaching hydropower, which is projected to reach 113 GW, or 32% of the mix.
Growth in the early years of the plan is concentrated in micro and mini distributed generation (MMGD), which alone is expected to reach 78 GW by 2035. By contrast, expansion of centralized solar generation is expected to face economic and operational constraints during periods of surplus in the National Interconnected System (SIN), driven by increasing penetration of variable renewables.
The plan notes that solar output peaks during daytime hours, while net demand is typically highest at night. This mismatch is contributing to curtailment risks and downward pressure on short-term market prices. In its reference scenario, centralized solar is assumed to make no contribution during periods of high nighttime demand.
The consultation document states that integrating storage with solar plants will be critical to improving competitiveness, enabling output to shift to periods of higher system need and potentially higher prices.
Brazil’s total installed capacity is projected to expand from 249 GW in 2025 to 359 GW in 2035, an increase of 110 GW. Over the same period, hydropower’s share of installed capacity is expected to decline from 47% to 35%, including both large and small hydro plants.
The share of centralized solar and wind remains broadly stable, while MMGD increases by six percentage points to 22% of installed capacity by 2035. Thermal generation is projected to rise from 12% to 14%.
Energy storage is expected to account for 2% of SIN installed capacity by 2035, while demand response could contribute up to 1%. Overall, renewables are projected to remain dominant, though their share of installed capacity is forecast to decline slightly from 94% in 2025 to 88% in 2035 under the baseline scenario.
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