From pv magazine Brazil
Projections from the Brazilian Association of Photovoltaic Solar Energy (Absolar) show that Brazil’s installed solar capacity will grow by 25% in 2025, adding 13.2 GW to the grid and bringing the total to more than 64.7 GW.
While the market expands, major module suppliers face new pressures driven by rising domestic demand in China, new subsidies, and the construction of large plants. These shifts are tightening global supply chains, with early signs of an impact on prices and availability in Brazil – a key export market for the industry.
To explore the implications, pv magazine interviewed leading module manufacturers active in Brazil, including AE Solar, Astronergy, Canadian Solar, Huasun, JA Solar, JinkoSolar, Longi, Risen Energy, and Trina Solar. Executives shared how these trends are reshaping their supply strategies, market share positions, and price forecasts. Some voiced caution; others offered more bullish perspectives.
Most companies downplayed the impact of Chinese demand on Brazilian shipments. Executives from Trina Solar and Canadian Solar said global production still outpaces consumption.
“Manufacturers today would have the capacity to supply more than 1 TW, while the global market consumes around 600 GW,” said Carlos Ribeiro, sales manager at Canadian Solar.
Still, several flagged near-term disruptions. JA Solar reported price increases in the first quarter and delivery pressure.
“The challenge for manufacturers is to adjust capacity without repeating the overproduction scenario of the past,” said Gabriel Magdalon, country manager for JA Solar.
AE Solar’s regional director, Jorge Moura, noted that Chinese priorities caused delays in international projects. Huasun, by contrast, said its scale and efficiency allowed it to stay on schedule.
“We delivered 1.8 GW to centralized and distributed generation in just three months,” said Huasun Energy Country Manager Vinicius Luiz.
In Brazil, the tone is more measured. Gabriel Gonçalves, commercial director for utility at Longi, described the situation as “punctual and limited in time.” Astronergy reported price impact but no availability issues. Risen said it faced no capacity restrictions.
Price trends
Delivery capability has emerged as a key differentiator. Ricardo Marchezini, Risen Energy’s country manager, said the company’s seven factories total 48 GW and can fully meet Brazilian demand. Longi, with 120 GW of global capacity, said it can ship between 20 MW and 100 MW per week, depending on the project.
Canadian Solar serves more than half the national market, with a focus on smaller integrators, according to Marcus Carvalho, product manager at Canadian Solar. Trina Solar pointed to the strength of its supply chain, noting a Brazilian factory producing up to 3 GW annually and a portfolio that includes locally sourced trackers.
Astronergy and JinkoSolar said local teams and technical support set them apart. AE Solar, with 2.5 GW of global capacity, is expanding production to keep pace with market growth, Moura said. Huasun, with 20 GW of capacity, is positioned to serve both utility-scale projects and distributors, Luiz said.
Price forecasts for the second half of 2025 remain mixed. Canadian Solar expects an increase, with FOB prices potentially hitting $0.12.
“But everything depends on the attitude of Brazilian buyers in the face of competition from lower-quality manufacturers,” said Carvalho.
JinkoSolar also projected a short-term increase followed by stabilization. In contrast, Astronergy and AE Solar expect flat prices.
“Production capacity still exceeds global demand. Competition will hold prices down,” said Moura.
Gonçalves of Longi sees room for recovery. “After historically low prices, the retraction in global supply will push prices up,” he said. Luiz of Huasun also expects gradual adjustments, especially in the first half of the year.
Manufacturers remain divided over the long-term prospects of HJT, back-contact (BC), and tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon) technologies. Most back TOPCon for near-term dominance, despite technical limitations.
“TOPCon will hold more than 50% of the market in the next four years,” said Trina Solar, citing data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) and the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV).
JinkoSolar’s Gervano agreed: “TOPCon technology is efficient, compatible with current factories, and has an excellent cost-benefit ratio.”
Canadian Solar’s internal analysis projects TOPCon will reach 80% of global production by 2027, with a decline by 2028 as perovskite and tandem technologies scale.
“TOPCon is still growing. It hasn’t reached its peak,” said Carvalho. “It still has a very long useful life ahead of it.”
Canadian Solar operates two HJT lines and plans to reach 1.5 GW by the end of 2025. It also plans to open a factory in the United States.
Manufacturers agreed that utility-scale PV is in retreat. Carvalho cited “few new projects” before 2026, pointing to high interest rates and curtailment. Astronergy said low PPA prices are another barrier.
Trina Solar said module import taxes have worsened the environment. AE Solar is betting on customized solutions and lower prices to sustain investor interest, Moura said. Jinko remains optimistic despite headwinds.
Criticism of Brazil’s import policy is widespread. Risen called for tax elimination, with JinkoSolar noting “there is no domestic manufacturing of technical similarity.” Canadian Solar flagged regulatory volatility as the bigger threat.
“Changes without predictability are extremely damaging,” said Carvalho, citing a tariff jump from 0% to 25% in under 30 days. “In Brazil, we have assemblers, not manufacturers. A domestic module costs three times more than an imported one.”
Trina and AE Solar also called for tax relief and more predictable rules. JinkoSolar criticized the gap between decarbonization goals and current policy. Huasun warned that “we have one of the largest solar potentials in the world. What is missing is a more stable regulatory environment,” said Luiz.
The storage sector is emerging as a natural extension of solar generation and a fix for grid bottlenecks. Carvalho said Canadian Solar already moves billions through Recurrent Energy and sees batteries as critical.
“Batteries are the present and the future,” he said, advocating incentives and sector-specific regulation.
Risen Energy, with nearly 20 years in storage and over 4 GWh delivered, ranks among global leaders. Marchezini said the company is a top BESS supplier in the U.S. and aims to replicate that success in Brazil with in-house solutions and vertical integration.
Trina Solar operates Trina Storage, covering everything from cells to final systems, and said it has an active technical team in South America. Jinko is promoting products like SunTera for utility-scale projects and sees storage as “key to mitigating curtailment,” said JinkoSolar.
Behind the scenes, manufacturers are positioning for the battery auction announced by the Brazilian government. If incentives align with pent-up demand, Brazil could finally integrate storage into its energy transition in a structured, competitive way.
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