Global capital expenditure on PV manufacturing equipment reached approximately $16.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to rise to $43.8 billion by 2035, according to a study commissioned by VDMA and conducted by Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems and ISC Konstanz. This represents an increase to roughly 2.6 times the current market size.
The study, “European Photovoltaics Machinery and Equipment Study,” focuses on the outlook for PV production equipment and the competitive position of European manufacturers.
According to the VDMA, the findings suggest that European companies remain relatively well positioned for now to participate in the expected market expansion. The region continues to hold strengths in high-tech solar manufacturing, supported by decades of research and engineering expertise, particularly in reliability, process stability, and equipment lifetime.
However, the report highlights structural challenges. Large-scale PV manufacturing is concentrated in China, India, and the United States, where industrial policy support has accelerated capacity growth. Europe lacks a strong domestic manufacturing base, which the study identifies as a disadvantage for maintaining competitiveness.
It also points to operational drawbacks for European suppliers, including longer response times, higher capital costs, and a more limited offering of turnkey solutions compared with predominantly Asian competitors. These findings are based on interviews with international factory operators. Subsidized competition in Asia further intensifies pressure on European firms.
The projected growth in equipment demand aligns with expansion in the global PV market itself. Annual installations are expected to reach 1.65 TW by 2035, representing roughly 2.5 times current levels. The study identifies tunnel-oxidized passivated contact (TOPCon), back-contact, heterojunction (HJT), and tandem cell technologies as likely to dominate future production.
The report notes that European equipment manufacturers have already demonstrated capabilities in current technologies such as TOPCon, but emphasizes that speed will be critical as customers increasingly prioritize short payback periods, integrated solutions, and rapid delivery.
The analysis covers the full PV manufacturing chain, from polysilicon production and crystal growth to wafer, cell, and module manufacturing. Key technologies examined include nanocoating, process automation, crystal growth systems, wet chemical and thermal processing, metrology, and module assembly tools such as stringers and laminators. Over the past decade, throughput and productivity in these areas have increased by as much as sixfold.
The report cites VDMA representatives such as Peter Fath, who said the findings provide a realistic assessment of the European PV equipment sector and its potential to support a competitive solar manufacturing industry, while also highlighting the need for targeted industrial policy measures and financing tools in Europe and key export markets.
It also cites Puzant Baliozian, who said that alongside Europe’s market potential, export markets will play a critical role, with global annual capex for PV production equipment expected to exceed $40 billion. European manufacturers, he said, are preparing consortium-based and turnkey solutions across ingot, wafer, cell, and module production to capture market share.
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