The study also outlined that the market has the potential to reach three gigawatts (GW) by 2015. However, the companys scenario analysis showed that "significant variability" is possible beyond 2013.
It went on to say that lack of long-term market visibility is keeping module manufacturers from making significant investments in Ontario production capacity.
"We considered a number of scenarios and their impact on market development," said Tim Wohlgemut, co-founder of ClearSky Advisors. "We found that supply/demand imbalances, grid constraints and political support beyond the 2011 provincial election are the main concerns for market participants and the continued growth of the market."
Driven by the feed-in tariff (FIT) program, the study said market growth will propel Ontario into the top 10 of the worlds solar markets. It also shows that demand for bankable Ontario-made modules will exceed expected supply of 386 MW in next year.
Starting in January, it went on to say that FIT rules require increased local content, "effectively triggering demand for Ontario-made modules". It added that lenders require equipment to be "bankable", meaning it has a quality track record and financially solid warranty.
"The Ontario FIT program certainly has created opportunities for individuals, developers, manufacturers and financiers alike," stated Jon Worren, co-founder of ClearSky Advisors. "While interest in the Ontario market remains high, it is clear that the market is facing some immediate and significant growth hurdles."
In the short term, the shortage of bankable module supply in 2011 will also lead to premium equipment prices and some project delays, said the study.
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