In its latest IHS Marketbuzz report, the solar analysts have projected a vision of a more stable post global PV market by 2019, in which manufacturing utilization rates rebound to peak 2010 levels. Global installed PV capacity is set to be steady, with 498 GW to have been installed in 2019, 177% growth on 2014 levels.
In August of last year, Lux Research predicted the annual global PV market would reach 65.5 GW by 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.3%.
Annual installation figures are set to grow alongside installed capacity, predicts IHS, resulting in a market in 2019 that is 66% bigger than in 2014. The annual rate in 2019 is forecast to be 75 GW.
"In the five years between 2015 and 2019, IHS expects that 11 global markets will exceed the average annual demand level of one gigawatt, said Susanne von Aichberger, solar industry analyst for IHS Technology, formerly Solarbuzz. This large number of country markets reduces the risk of another explosion in the global PV market and of an overly strong capacity build-up. The transition towards a growing number of post-FIT markets, said von Aichberger, will help stabilize the global market.
Looking at the production side, IHS predicts utilization rates will rebound fully by 2019, to levels not seen since 2010 when the solar industry was experiencing phenomenal growth. Module prices are set to decline steadily, reaching ASPs for standard c-Si modules of US$0.45/W by 2019.
In terms of technology, thin film is predicted to maintain market share of around 7%, after dropping down from 15% back in 2010, driven by CdTe and CIGS. Amorphous silicon is set to continue to fade, according to IHS, with its annual production in 2019 slumping to half of what was produced in 2014.
In 2014, IHS figures reveal that China and Japan accounted for one quarter of global PV demand, with the U.S., UK and Germany another quarter.