EUPD Research expects 6 GW of new solar for Germany in 2021

From pv magazine Germany

German market research company EUPD Research forecast that around 6 GW of new PV systems may be grid connected in Germany this year. If confirmed, this result would represent 23% growth compared to 2020, when the newly installed PV capacity reached 4.88 GW.

The company's analysts said that, although the business of around half of the German installers was negatively impacted by the Covid-19 crisis, most of them are providing a positive outlook for 2021. EUPD Research project manager Hanna Schmole explained that the pandemic is also having a positive effect as it raises awareness on sustainability issues, which in turn stimulates solar demand.

From the analyst's point of view, investors' motives are quite different, depending on the market segment.

In the residential PV business, the main growth drivers will be an increase in electricity prices and the rising interest in electromobility. In the commercial segment, different developments are to be expected due to the latest amendments to Germany's renewable energy law, the so-called EEG. Under the new rules, in fact, the feed-in tariff scheme for rooftop PV was maintained only for systems with a capacity of up to 300 kW. Under the previous regulatory framework, this size limit was 750 kW.

EUPD Research forecast that the strongest growth will come from the utility scale segment, as many projects selected in public tenders are expected to reach completion by the end of 2021.

As for large scale unsubsidized PV plants linked to power purchase agreements, the analyst expects that around 400 MW could be deployed. In February, Enervis published a market report on the European PPA market, according to which, there is currently a project pipeline in Germany for subsidy-free photovoltaic projects with a volume of 786 MW.

*The article was amended to specify that 4.88 GW of PV were deployed in 2020 and not 2019, as we previously reported.